Climate Risks Impacting Pakistan's Agriculture

Climate change, driven by rising global temperatures, escalating greenhouse gas emissions, and the extensive reliance on fossil fuels, represents an existential threat to agriculture worldwide. For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high. The country consistently ranks among the nations most affected by climate-induced disasters, placing 5th on the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 (Eckstein et al., 2021). This ranking underscores the acute vulnerability of Pakistan’s ecosystems, communities, and economy to extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cyclones.

Pakistan’s economy remains deeply dependent on agriculture, which employs over 37.4% of the national labor force and contributes 22.9% to GDP (GoP, 2023). The sector’s reliance on predictable weather patterns makes it exceptionally sensitive to climatic fluctuations. Altered monsoon cycles, intensified heatwaves, and increasing frequency of cyclones have already disrupted rain-fed and irrigated farming systems, reducing yields of staples such as wheat, rice, and maize. Floods, like those witnessed in 2022, not only destroyed crops and arable land but also caused severe soil erosion, nutrient depletion, and long-term degradation, threatening future productivity.

Beyond physical losses, climate change imposes economic burdens. Higher temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns increase irrigation demands, fertilizer needs, and pest management costs, raising the cost of production while squeezing farmer incomes. Smallholder farmers, who dominate Pakistan’s agricultural landscape, are particularly exposed, lacking the resources or technical capacity to adapt rapidly.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-pronged approach: investment in climate-resilient crop varieties, modernization of irrigation systems, improved water management, and the integration of early warning and advisory services. By embedding climate adaptation into agricultural planning and policy, Pakistan can safeguard food security, stabilize rural livelihoods, and maintain the economic contributions of its vital agricultural sector even in the face of mounting climatic pressures.

The Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan's Agricultural Economy

Pakistan’s agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to climate variability due to its reliance on extensive irrigated systems, covering approximately 18.63 million hectares, predominantly in Punjab (PBS, 2023). These systems, alongside traditional practices like spate irrigation, sustain both Rabi (winter) and Kharif (summer) crops, forming the backbone of national food security and rural livelihoods. Yet, the sector’s heavy dependence on water renders it highly sensitive to climatic shifts. Rising temperatures accelerate glacial melt in the northern mountains, which, combined with increased evaporation and higher crop water requirements, exacerbate water scarcity. Paradoxically, the country also faces extreme flooding events. The 2022 floods, which submerged nearly a third of Pakistan, exemplify this dual threat, causing an estimated $3.7 billion in agricultural damages, destroying standing crops, and depositing silt that rendered arable land infertile (World Bank, 2022).

The impact of climate change extends across all major crops. Wheat and rice, the nation’s primary staples, are especially vulnerable. Projections indicate a potential temperature rise of 3°C by 2040 and 5–6°C by the end of the century (IPCC, 2022), which could reduce wheat yields by 14.7% and rice yields by 20.5% due to heat stress and water scarcity (Abbas et al., 2023). Maize, cotton, and sugarcane are similarly threatened, with sugarcane production alone expected to decline by 8–10% under projected climate scenarios (Ali et al., 2022). These reductions not only diminish domestic food availability but also constrain exportable surpluses, weakening the sector’s contribution to the national economy.

The broader implications for food security are severe. Climate-induced crop losses and infrastructure damage disrupt supply chains, inflate prices, and push vulnerable communities toward poverty and malnutrition. During the peak of the 2022 flood crisis, over 36% of Pakistan’s population experienced acute food insecurity (WFP, 2023). This rising vulnerability underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies, including resilient crop varieties, efficient irrigation technologies, robust early warning systems, and strengthened disaster management frameworks. By proactively integrating these measures, Pakistan can protect agricultural productivity, stabilize rural livelihoods, and mitigate the economic and social consequences of climate change on its critical agricultural sector.

Strategies for Adaptation and Building Resilience

Addressing the mounting challenges posed by climate change in Pakistan’s agriculture demands a comprehensive, multi-dimensional strategy that integrates technological, economic, and institutional measures. Central to this approach is the promotion of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), which seeks to enhance productivity while conserving resources and reducing vulnerability. Technological innovation is critical, particularly the development and dissemination of drought-resistant, heat-tolerant, and early maturing crop varieties, such as stress-tolerant strains of wheat and rice, which can sustain yields under extreme weather conditions. Precision farming techniques, including drip and sprinkler irrigation, offer a significant opportunity to optimize water use, cutting consumption by 30–50% compared to traditional flood irrigation methods (Qureshi, 2021), while simultaneously improving soil health and nutrient efficiency.

Economic and institutional measures are equally essential to bolster resilience. Crop diversification into less water-intensive and climate-resilient crops such as pulses, legumes, and orchards can reduce dependency on vulnerable staples and spread economic risk for farmers. Complementing this, index-based climate insurance schemes can provide financial safety nets, mitigating income losses from floods, droughts, or unseasonal weather events. Policy and investment support further amplify these efforts. Dedicated R&D funding can advance climate-resilient technologies, extension services can bridge knowledge gaps by educating farmers on sustainable practices, and market incentives can encourage the adoption of eco-friendly production methods.

Water resource management forms a critical pillar of adaptation strategies. Investments in large-scale water storage, harvesting rainwater, and modernized canal networks reduce losses from seepage and evaporation. Equitable water distribution policies and community-led management of local water resources can ensure that both irrigated and rain-fed systems remain productive even under constrained conditions. By combining CSA, economic safeguards, and robust water management, Pakistan can enhance the adaptive capacity of its agricultural sector, safeguard rural livelihoods, and maintain food security in an increasingly unpredictable climate.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s agriculture faces an unprecedented confluence of climate-related risks that threaten both food security and economic stability. Rising temperatures, erratic precipitation, and extreme weather events, exemplified by the catastrophic 2022 and 2025 flash floods, have highlighted the sector’s vulnerability, from water scarcity and soil degradation to reduced yields in staple and cash crops. These challenges not only disrupt livelihoods for millions of smallholder farmers but also amplify production costs and constrain the country’s capacity to maintain domestic supply and exportable surpluses. The consequences extend beyond the farm gate, affecting national food prices, rural incomes, and socio-economic resilience.

Addressing these vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, multi-layered response. Climate-smart agriculture, including drought- and heat-tolerant crop varieties, precision irrigation, and diversified cropping systems, provides a pathway to maintain productivity under changing conditions. Economic and institutional measures such as index-based insurance, targeted subsidies, and market incentives can mitigate financial risks for farmers. Strategic investments in water resource management, infrastructure modernization, and community-led governance further strengthen adaptive capacity.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s ability to safeguard its agricultural sector hinges on integrating these strategies into policy and practice. Proactive adaptation can preserve crop yields, stabilize rural livelihoods, and ensure national food security despite climate pressures. By embracing innovation, resilience, and sustainable management, Pakistan can transform climate challenges into opportunities, securing both the economic and ecological foundations of its vital agricultural economy for future generations.

References: Abbas et al.; Ali et al.; Eckstein et al.; Government of Pakistan; IPCC; PBS; Qureshi; World Bank; WFP

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan 

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