Climate-Smart Agriculture: Securing Pakistan's Future

Agriculture is the cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing approximately 22.7% to the national GDP and employing 37.4% of the labor force, while serving as the primary source of livelihood for most rural households (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2023–24). However, this critical sector now stands at the frontline of the climate crisis, facing escalating threats that undermine national food security, economic stability, and social well-being. Over the past decade, Pakistan has witnessed an alarming increase in climate-induced disasters, including erratic monsoon patterns, prolonged droughts, glacial melt, extreme heatwaves, and recurrent flooding. These events are no longer isolated occurrences; they are intensifying in frequency and severity.

The devastating floods of 2022 marked a turning point, submerging one-third of the country, inflicting more than USD 30 billion in economic losses, and destroying vast swathes of cropland (World Bank, 2023). Subsequent flooding in 2025 further exposed the structural fragility of Pakistan’s agricultural systems, displacing millions, disrupting supply chains, and crippling seasonal crop cycles. The fallout has been severe: the major crop subsector contracted by an estimated 13.5% in FY 2024–25, with wheat, maize, sugarcane, and cotton, the backbone of Pakistan’s food and export economy, suffering the greatest setbacks (Ministry of National Food Security & Research, 2025).

Looking ahead, climate projections paint an equally troubling picture. Scientific studies warn that wheat yields alone could decline by up to 16% by 2050 due to rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns (Arif et al., 2022). Such losses would exacerbate food shortages, increase import dependence, and heighten rural poverty. These realities underscore the urgent need for systemic adaptation through Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)an approach that enhances productivity, strengthens resilience, and reduces emissions. Without swift and strategic action, Pakistan risks deeper food insecurity and widening economic vulnerability in the decades to come.

The Escalating Challenge: Climate Vulnerability of Pakistani Agriculture

Pakistan stands at a perilous crossroads as its agriculture already the backbone of rural livelihoods and national food security faces intensifying climate pressures. Ranked among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change (Global Climate Risk Index, 2021), the nation’s agrarian system is now confronting a multidimensional crisis that threatens its productivity, sustainability, and economic stability. The worsening frequency of extreme weather events has ushered in a new era of climate volatility. The catastrophic floods of 2022 were followed by another devastating episode in 2025, displacing over four million people and destroying thousands of acres of standing crops. These repeated disasters reveal a troubling pattern, what were once rare climatic shocks have now become cyclical disruptions.

Compounding these events is Pakistan’s rapidly escalating water crisis. Per capita water availability has fallen from 5,000 cubic meters in 1951 to approximately 900 cubic meters today, pushing the country into the category of water-scarce nations (PCRWR, 2024). This decline poses a severe threat to irrigation-dependent farming systems. At the same time, rising temperatures are exerting direct stress on major crops. Evidence shows that a 1°C increase during the wheat grain-filling stage can reduce yields by 5–7%, a staggering loss for a staple crop that feeds millions (Hussain et al., 2023).

Soil degradation further worsens this vulnerability. Unsustainable agricultural practices have accelerated erosion, salinization, and nutrient depletion, diminished soil organic matter and reduced its ability to retain moisture (Shahzad et al., 2020). As soil weakens, farms become more susceptible to drought, crop failure, and long-term productivity decline. Taken together, these challenges paint a stark picture: without urgent adaptation and sustainable management, Pakistan’s agricultural future and its food security hangs in the balance.

Defining Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), is an integrated approach designed to transform agri-food systems through environmentally sustainable and climate-resilient practices (FAO, 2022). At its core, CSA focuses on three mutually reinforcing objectives. First, it seeks to sustainably increase agricultural productivity and farmers’ incomes by enhancing output without degrading natural resources, ensuring that economic growth does not come at the expense of ecological stability. Second, it emphasizes adaptation and resilience, equipping farming communities and production systems to withstand climate-related stocks such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, which are becoming increasingly frequent in countries like Pakistan. Third, CSA promotes mitigation by reducing or removing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities wherever possible, recognizing that the sector must be part of the global climate solution.

What makes CSA distinct is its flexibility and contextual relevance. Rather than promoting a universal model, CSA encourages locally informed solutions tailored to specific agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions. This means that conservation agriculture and precision irrigation may be most effective in the irrigated plains of Punjab, while drought-tolerant crops and rainwater harvesting may offer greater resilience in the arid landscapes of Balochistan. Similarly, agroforestry and integrated livestock systems may better support the rain-fed regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. By aligning climate action with locally adaptive strategies, CSA provides a practical pathway for countries like Pakistan to safeguard food security, protect natural resources, and build resilient rural economies in the face of accelerating climate change.

Proven CSA Practices for Pakistani Farmers

For Pakistan’s predominantly smallholder farming community, the transition to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) must be anchored in practical, affordable, and locally adaptable solutions. Several evidence-based practices have already demonstrated measurable success across diverse agro-ecological zones of the country. The use of climate-resilient crop varieties is among the most effective strategies. Heat-tolerant wheat cultivars such as Zincol-2016 have reduced yield losses by 10–12% during high-temperature episodes in Punjab and Sindh, while drought-resistant rice and maize varieties are supporting production in increasingly water-stressed regions (NARC, 2023). Alongside varietal improvements, water-smart irrigation systems are becoming essential. Techniques like Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) in rice cultivation have achieved up to 30% water savings without compromising yield, as confirmed by Punjab field trials (IRRI, 2022). Complementary practices such as laser land leveling and drip irrigation further enhance water productivity and reduce waste.

Conservation agriculture including minimum tillage, crop rotation, and residue retention has also shown promising results in the Indus Basin, where farmers have recorded 15–20% yield gains and lower fuel and labor costs (CIMMYT, 2021). Similarly, agroforestry systems that integrate multipurpose species such as Acacia and Moringa help stabilize soils, diversify incomes, and increase carbon sequestration, making them particularly beneficial for semi-arid landscapes. In parallel, digital climate services are proving to be a game-changer. Mobile-based agro-advisories and early warning systems enable farmers to adjust sowing dates, irrigation schedules, and harvesting plans. A recent pilot in Punjab showed that farmers who received SMS weather alerts reduced climate-induced crop losses by nearly 15% (PARC, 2023).

Realizing the full potential of CSA, however, requires strong institutional and policy support. Implementation must move beyond policy statements toward tangible action. Strengthening research–extension linkages is crucial to ensure that innovations developed by institutions such as UAF, PARC, and NARC reach farmers in the field. Financial incentives, including targeted subsidies, climate-linked crop insurance, and accessible credit, can reduce the risk burden on smallholders. Investment in localized climate-information systems, coupled with international cooperation through FAO, the World Bank, and CGIAR networks, will further accelerate CSA adoption. Together, these approaches can build a resilient, water-efficient, and climate-adaptive agricultural future for Pakistan.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s agriculture now stands at a defining moment. As climate shocks grow in frequency and magnitude, the traditional systems that once sustained rural livelihoods are no longer sufficient to ensure food security or economic stability. The evidence is clear: without decisive intervention, climate change will continue to erode crop productivity, deepen rural poverty, and intensify the country’s dependence on food imports. Climate-Smart Agriculture offers a pragmatic and forward-looking pathway to confront these challenges. By integrating resilient crop varieties, efficient water management, conservation practices, and digital advisory tools, CSA enables farmers to adapt, sustain yields, and safeguard natural resources even under unpredictable climate conditions.

However, technology and on-farm practice alone are not enough. Progress will depend on strong institutional commitment, sustained policy implementation, and inclusive support for smallholders, who form the backbone of Pakistan’s food system. Strengthening research-extension linkages, expanding climate finance, and scaling early warning systems will be critical steps in accelerating this transformation. With coordinated action from government, academia, development partners, and farming communities, Pakistan can build a resilient agricultural future. CSA is not merely an option it is an urgent national imperative. By acting today, Pakistan can protect its farmlands, secure its food systems, and ensure a more prosperous and climate-resilient tomorrow for generations to come.

References: Arif et al; CIMMYT; FAO; Global Climate Risk Index; Hussain et al; IRRI; NARC; Pakistan Economic Survey; PARC; PCRWR; Shahzad et al; World Bank.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the College of Agriculture, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan and can be reached at ather.nadeem@uos.edu.pk

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