From Fields to Cities: Climate Change, Migration, and Food Security in Pakistan

The narrative of agriculture in Pakistan transcends the mere cycle of sowing and reaping, it mirrors the nation’s ongoing story of social, demographic, and economic transformation. Pakistan today stands at the crossroads of one of South Asia’s fastest urban transitions, with nearly 43.7% of its population now living in cities (World Bank, 2023). By 2050, this figure is projected to exceed 50% (UN DESA, 2022), signaling a profound shift in the country’s spatial and economic landscape. Behind this rapid urbanization lies the deep structural evolution of Pakistan’s agrarian system.

The spread of agricultural mechanization has reduced the need for manual labor, while continuous land fragmentation has made small-scale farming increasingly unviable. Simultaneously, erratic rainfall, water scarcity, and rising temperatures, hallmarks of climate change, have further eroded rural livelihoods, compelling millions to seek security in urban centers. Yet, this migration is not solely a symptom of rural distress; it also represents untapped potential. When strategically managed, rural-urban migration can act as a dynamic force for national development. Agriculture, if revitalized through technology, policy reform, and value-chain integration, can serve as the anchor for balanced economic growth. Strengthening rural infrastructure, supporting agro-based industries, and promoting rural entrepreneurship can transform migration into a circular process where resources, skills, and remittances flow back into the countryside.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s future urbanization cannot be sustained without strong rural foundations. By positioning agriculture as both a source of livelihood and innovation, the country can bridge the rural-urban divide, ensuring that growth in cities does not come at the expense of rural decline. The transformation of Pakistan’s agricultural sector, therefore, is not only vital for food security but central to achieving inclusive, sustainable, and equitable national development.

The Climate-Migration Nexus: A Pressing Driver of Change

Climate change has emerged as one of the most powerful forces reshaping Pakistan’s demographic and economic landscape. The country, despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, remains among the ten most climate-vulnerable nations in the world (Germanwatch, 2021). Its geography ranging from arid deserts to glacial mountain systems—makes it uniquely exposed to both slow-onset and sudden climate shocks. The devastating floods of 2022 serve as a stark reminder: nearly one-third of Pakistan was submerged, causing over $30 billion in damages and losses, destroying 4.4 million acres of cropland, and displacing nearly 33 million people (World Bank, 2022; Government of Pakistan, 2022). For many, the floods were not just a temporary disruption but a permanent rupture in their way of life, forcing millions to migrate from submerged villages to overcrowded cities.

Beyond such catastrophic events, slow-onset processes continue to silently erode the country’s agrarian stability. Rising temperatures, irregular monsoon patterns, soil salinization, and the overexploitation of groundwater are progressively undermining rural productivity. Scientific projections are grim: studies suggest that wheat yields in Punjab, Pakistan’s primary grain-producing region, could drop by 15–20% by 2050 if adaptive measures are not taken (Hussain et al., 2023). Such gradual degradation pushes rural households into a state of chronic vulnerability, where migration becomes not a choice, but a survival strategy.

The climate-migration nexus thus represents more than environmental displacement it is a socio-economic transformation in motion. Unplanned migration strains urban infrastructure amplifies poverty in informal settlements, and fuels social tensions. Addressing this requires integrated climate resilience policies that link rural adaptation through climate-smart agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness with sustainable urban planning. Only through this holistic approach can Pakistan break the cycle of climate vulnerability and forced migration.

Food Security and Migration: A Vicious Cycle

Food security lies at the heart of Pakistan’s development challenge, intricately tied to both rural livelihoods and patterns of migration. With the population surpassing 241 million (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2023), the country faces a mounting struggle to ensure consistent access to nutritious and affordable food for all citizens. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2023) estimates that 36.9% of Pakistanis experience moderate or severe food insecurity a figure that highlights both the depth and the persistence of this crisis. Rural-urban migration, while often seen as a response to poverty and environmental stress, can paradoxically deepen food insecurity across regions.

As increasing numbers of rural workers migrate to cities in search of better income opportunities, the agricultural labor force thins out, particularly in smallholder and subsistence farming systems. This labor shortage can reduce agricultural productivity, disrupt planting cycles, and limit the capacity for local food production. Simultaneously, urban areas already struggling with inadequate infrastructure face rising demand for food, inflating prices and straining supply chains. Without efficient logistics and storage systems, food waste increases, compounding shortages and driving further economic stress among low-income households.

A 2022 study published in Food Policy underscores this dangerous feedback loop: migration, unless accompanied by agricultural modernization and supply chain resilience, can worsen food insecurity in both sending and receiving regions (Mughal & Fontan, 2022). The result is a self-reinforcing cycle food insecurity compels people to migrate, and migration further weakens food systems.

Breaking this cycle requires a two-pronged approach. First, investment in rural innovation mechanization, value chain development, and water-efficient farming must strengthen productivity. Second, urban food policies must enhance distribution efficiency and affordability. Only by linking food systems with migration management can Pakistan secure its nutritional future and build resilience against future shocks.

A Policy Roadmap: From Global Frameworks to Local Action

The interconnected challenges of climate change, food insecurity, and migration are no longer isolated national concerns they are part of a shared global agenda. The United Nations Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM), adopted in 2018, formally acknowledges environmental degradation and climate change as key drivers of human displacement (United Nations, 2018). For Pakistan, which endorsed the Compact, this international framework provides both guidance and legitimacy for designing migration policies that are preventive, inclusive, and development oriented. Complementing this, the UNFCCC COP27 summit (2022) introduced the “Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Work on Agriculture and Food Security,” integrating agricultural resilience into global climate negotiations (UNFCCC, 2022). Aligning Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy (2021) and National Adaptation Plan with these frameworks can transform reactive disaster responses into proactive, climate-resilient planning.

Pakistan, which has consistently championed climate justice on the international stage, can now leverage these global commitments to access climate finance and technology transfer. International support, combined with domestic reforms, can fund large-scale adaptation measures drought-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, and resilient rural infrastructure that reduce the drivers of forced migration.

However, global alignment must translate into localized action. Pakistan’s strategy should integrate agricultural modernization with urban preparedness. The development of agro-based industries in peri-urban zones particularly through Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC can generate non-farm employment while maintaining links to agriculture. Establishing value-added industries, cold storage, and processing units can reduce post-harvest losses, estimated at 25–40% for perishables (FAO, 2021), while curbing distress migration. Programs like the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami and the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) can be expanded within this integrated framework to enhance livelihoods, environmental resilience, and social protection. In doing so, Pakistan can transform migration from a crisis response into a cornerstone of sustainable development.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s agricultural transformation stands at the nexus of climate resilience, economic reform, and social justice. The pressures of rapid urbanization, climate-induced displacement, and food insecurity are deeply interconnected, reinforcing the other in a cycle that threatens long-term national stability. Yet within this complexity lies opportunity. If Pakistan reimagines agriculture not as a declining sector but as the foundation of sustainable growth, it can turn migration into a managed process that fuels both rural and urban development.

The country’s commitment to international frameworks such as the Global Compact for Migration and the UNFCCC’s agricultural resilience agenda must now translate into action at home. Strengthening rural infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and building agro-based industries near urban centers can reduce rural distress while creating jobs that bridge the countryside and the city. Ensuring food security through efficient supply chains, empowering smallholders with technology and credit access, and expanding social protection programs will further anchor resilience.

Ultimately, the path forward demands integration not separation of rural and urban priorities. A climate-smart, inclusive, and innovative agricultural system can serve as Pakistan’s most powerful tool for equitable growth, turning the pressures of migration and environmental change into drivers of national renewal and shared prosperity.

References: FAO; Germanwatch; GoP; Hussain et al; Mughal & Fontan; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; UN DESA; UNFCCC; United Nations; World Bank

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization. 

The writers are affiliated with the Department of Agriculture & Agribusiness Management, University of Karachi, Pakistan and can be reached at shah.aziz@uok.edu.pk

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