Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan's Agriculture

Scientists around the world agree that climate change caused by human activity is happening faster than ever. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2021 that the Earth’s surface temperature during 2011–2020 was about 1.09°C warmer than it was between 1850 and 1900. This warming is mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial pollution. Although Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is among the countries most affected by climate change. The World Bank (2022) warns that by the 2050s, the average annual temperature in Pakistan could rise by 1.5–2.5°C under a low-emission scenario, or 2.5–3.5°C if emissions continue to increase. Such warming will worsen water shortages, harm food production, and make life more difficult for rural communities, especially in Sindh province.

Data collected from Tando Jam, Hyderabad, between 1987 and 2020, clearly show that the local climate is changing. The average temperature has risen by about 0.45°C. Even a small rise like this can make crops grow and mature too quickly, leading to lower yields. Some studies predict that crop cycles could shorten by up to 50 days by the end of the century if the warming continues.

Rainfall in the area has also changed. It has increased by nearly 60%, from about 129 mm to 204 mm per year, but now it comes in heavy bursts rather than steady showers. These sudden rains often flood fields, causing waterlogging and salinity problems that already affect over 40% of Sindh’s irrigated farmland. This reduces soil quality and crop health.

At the same time, wind speed has fallen while humidity has changed, reducing evaporation and altering irrigation needs. Farmers are finding it harder to plan water use because traditional patterns no longer apply. These shifts show that climate change is already affecting Sindh’s agriculture, and there is an urgent need for actions such as using heat-tolerant crops, better irrigation systems, and improved soil and water management to help farmers adapt to the new climate reality.

Impacts on Agricultural Systems and Crop Productivity

Climate change has begun to reshape Pakistan’s agricultural landscape, with Sindh emerging as a critical hotspot for climate-related impacts on crop productivity. Field-based evidence from Tando Jam and simulation models across Pakistan both reveal that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and shifting seasonal patterns are directly influencing crop water use, growth cycles, and yield stability.

For wheat, one of Sindh’s major winter crops, rising temperatures and prolonged sunshine hours have led to increased evapotranspiration (ET), meaning that more water is now needed to sustain plant growth. This intensifies pressure on already scarce irrigation resources in the Indus Basin. Despite these challenges, adaptive measures have shown promising outcomes. The introduction of heat-tolerant and early-maturing wheat varieties such as NIA-Sarang has increased yields by 46–53% compared to the levels achieved in the 1980s (Gul et al., 2023). This demonstrates that the adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies and resilient crop genetics can partially offset the negative impacts of climate stress.

Cotton, however, paints a more concerning picture. Its growing season has shortened by approximately 21 days due to higher temperatures accelerating plant development. Although ET rates have declined, this apparent advantage is misleading. Intensified monsoon rains during the crucial lint formation period (June–September) have frequently resulted in waterlogging, boll rot, and pest outbreaks, causing yield losses of up to 66% in extreme years such as 2020.

These localized findings align with national modeling results. Studies using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model estimate that from 1961–2015, climate variability caused an 18.2% decline in cotton yields in Punjab, primarily because of shorter growth periods (Arshad et al., 2021). Similarly, research by Raza and Ahmad (2015) found that rising temperatures have had an even stronger negative effect in Sindh compared to Punjab. Collectively, both empirical and simulated evidence confirm that climate change poses a growing threat to Pakistan’s crop productivity, necessitating urgent adaptation through research, innovation, and regional coordination.

Socio-Economic Impacts on Household Incomes

The consequences of climate change are not confined to fields and farms they ripple through the broader rural economy, affecting household incomes, employment, and overall community well-being. In Pakistan, where nearly 60% of the population depends directly or indirectly on agriculture, even minor shifts in temperature or rainfall patterns can have major economic implications.

According to a national-level econometric study by Maqbool et al. (2023), a 1°C rise in average annual temperature results in a 3.3% income decline for agricultural households and a 0.4% reduction for non-agricultural households. This shows that while farmers are hit hardest due to their direct dependence on weather-sensitive production, climate shocks also spill over into the non-farm rural economy, affecting transporters, input dealers, and local businesses that rely on agricultural activity. Furthermore, a 1°C increase in temperature variability, representing greater uncertainty in weather conditions, leads to an average income reduction of 4% across both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.

Rainfall changes produce similarly mixed effects. Although higher average rainfall can enhance crop yields and temporarily boost farm income, irregular or unpredictable precipitation patterns tend to undermine this benefit. Erratic rainfall often leads to floods, delayed sowing, or water shortages at critical crop stages all of which reduce productivity and increase household vulnerability.

These findings highlight that climate change is not merely an environmental challenge but a profound socio-economic threat. It erodes the resilience of low-income households, deepens existing inequalities, and pushes more families below the poverty line. The cumulative effect undermines Pakistan’s rural development goals, contributing to migration pressures, food insecurity, and growing demand for government support. Strengthening adaptive capacity through diversified livelihoods, climate insurance, and social protection programs is therefore essential to safeguard household incomes in the face of increasing climate variability.

Policy Recommendations for Building Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Pakistan

Climate change is no longer a distant concern it is an urgent and unfolding crisis reshaping Pakistan’s agricultural landscape today. The increasing frequency of heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and water shortages has already begun to undermine productivity, farm incomes, and food security. To safeguard rural livelihoods and national food supply, policymakers must adopt a two-pronged approach centered on adaptation and resilience-building.

The modernization of irrigation systems and water management practices is the first crucial step. Provincial irrigation departments should update crop water requirement data using current climate records and promote the use of High-Efficiency Irrigation Systems (HEIS) such as drip and sprinkler technologies. These systems, supported by targeted subsidies, can help farmers adapt to shifting evapotranspiration patterns and mitigate the effects of water scarcity.

Equally important is the rapid expansion of climate-resilient crop varieties. Scaling up research, breeding, and distribution of heat-tolerant, drought-resistant, and short-duration cultivars such as the NIA-Sarang wheat and climate-smart cotton will enhance productivity under extreme conditions. Parallel investments in climate-proof infrastructure, particularly drainage and salinity management in Sindh, are vital to address the impacts of increasing rainfall intensity.

Strengthening of meteorological services is another high priority. A robust early warning system can deliver localized forecasts and agro-advisories, enabling farmers to make informed decisions about planting and irrigation. Government agencies should also officially revise planting calendars, such as advancing cotton sowing to early April to reduce exposure to monsoon-related yield losses.

Lastly, financial and social protection measures must be expanded. Climate-indexed insurance schemes and flexible social safety nets like the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) can protect vulnerable farmers from income shocks. By integrating these policy actions into provincial and national frameworks, Pakistan can build a more resilient, climate-adaptive agricultural economy capable of withstanding future challenges.

Conclusion

Climate change is already reshaping Pakistan’s agricultural systems, and its impacts are no longer theoretical they are visible in changing weather patterns, shifting crop cycles, and declining farm incomes. Evidence from Sindh, particularly Tando Jam, shows measurable increases in temperature, erratic rainfall, and altered evapotranspiration patterns that directly affect water use and crop productivity. Wheat and cotton, two of Pakistan’s most important crops, are experiencing significant stress, with shorter growing periods, increased pest infestations, and rising irrigation demands. Although adaptive innovations such as the introduction of heat-tolerant wheat varieties have shown encouraging results, these efforts remain limited in scale and unevenly implemented across regions.

The socio-economic repercussions are equally serious. Even a modest rise in temperature can substantially reduce rural household incomes, worsen poverty, and heighten economic vulnerability. With agriculture forming the backbone of rural employment and national food security, climate change poses a systemic threat to Pakistan’s development goals.

Moving forward, immediate policy action is imperative. Modernizing irrigation, investing in resilient crop research, improving weather forecasting, and expanding financial safety nets are not just adaptive measures, they are survival strategies. By embedding climate resilience into agricultural planning and governance, Pakistan can transform its vulnerability into strength and secure a more sustainable future for its farmers and food systems.

References: Arshad et al; Bouras et al; Eckstein et al; Gul et al; IPCC; Maqbool et al; PCRWR; Raza & Ahmad; World Bank.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writers are affiliated with the Drainage and Reclamation Institute of Pakistan (DRIP), Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) and can be reached at nazargul43@gmail.com

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