Impact of Storms on Türkiye's Agriculture

Agriculture remains among the economic sectors most critically exposed to climatic extremes, largely because it functions as an “open-air factory” with minimal physical protection from atmospheric forces. Unlike manufacturing or services, agricultural production depends directly on weather conditions, making it exceptionally sensitive to changes in temperature, precipitation, wind intensity, and the frequency of extreme events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) underscores that climate change is intensifying the severity and unpredictability of such extremes, increasing the likelihood of sudden and destructive storms that can disrupt entire production cycles within hours.

In Türkiye, storms represent a growing and multifaceted threat to agricultural systems. These events often take the form of intense rainfall leading to floods and waterlogging, hailstorms that physically damage crops at critical growth stages, strong winds that flatten orchards and greenhouses, and abrupt temperature fluctuations that stress plants and reduce yields. Beyond crop losses, storms frequently damage irrigation infrastructure, storage facilities, farm machinery, and rural roads, compounding economic losses and delaying recovery. For small and medium-scale farmers, who dominate Türkiye’s agricultural landscape, such shocks can translate into severe income instability and long-term indebtedness.

The macroeconomic implications are equally significant. Agriculture contributes approximately 6.5 percent to Türkiye’s gross domestic product and provides livelihoods for nearly 18 percent of the national workforce (TÜİK, 2023; FAO, 2023). Storm-induced disruptions therefore extend beyond the farm gate, affecting food supply chains, price stability, agro-industrial inputs, and export performance. Repeated weather shocks also undermine investment incentives in agriculture, discouraging modernization and adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies.

Given this central role, understanding storm dynamics and strengthening adaptive capacity is no longer optional but essential. Investments in climate-resilient farming practices, early warning systems, improved drainage and infrastructure, and risk management tools such as agricultural insurance are critical to safeguarding food security and sustaining rural livelihoods. As climate variability intensifies, Türkiye’s agricultural resilience will increasingly determine not only sectoral performance but also broader economic and social stability.

Defining Storms and Their Socio-Economic Reach

A storm can be broadly defined as an extreme meteorological event characterized by intense rainfall, strong winds, hail, lightning, or abrupt temperature changes that disrupt normal atmospheric equilibrium. While storms are natural phenomena, their increasing frequency and intensity, driven by climate change, have amplified their socio-economic consequences. Storms do not merely represent short-term weather disturbances; they trigger cascading effects across ecosystems, infrastructure networks, and human well-being. In agricultural contexts, even a single severe storm can destroy standing crops, erode fertile soil, damage irrigation systems, and compromise future planting seasons, thereby extending impacts far beyond the immediate event.

The socio-economic reach of storms extends well beyond the farm sector. In coastal and maritime regions, storms pose serious risks to navigation, fisheries, and port operations. Historically, maritime regulations and safety protocols have been aligned with predictable seasonal weather patterns. However, the growing unpredictability of storm events increasingly undermines these systems, exposing fishers, transport operators, and coastal communities to heightened physical and financial risks. Disruptions in maritime activities also affect food supply chains, export flows, and regional trade, linking storm impacts directly to national economic performance.

In Türkiye, the economic toll of storm-related damage to agriculture is substantial, yet often underestimated in official statistics. Crop losses from hail, flooding, and wind damage, along with destruction of greenhouses, orchards, and rural infrastructure, impose significant costs on farmers each year. According to the World Bank (2021), these losses disproportionately affect smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of agricultural producers and typically lack adequate savings, insurance coverage, or access to formal credit. For these households, storm damage can trigger income shocks that push families into debt, reduce food consumption, and accelerate rural–urban migration.

Beyond material losses, storms also generate psychological and social stress. Recurrent exposure to extreme weather events undermines farmers’ sense of security and planning capacity, weakening long-term investment decisions. Recognizing storms as a socio-economic risk, not merely a climatic event, is therefore essential. Integrating disaster risk assessment, farmer protection mechanisms, and climate-resilient policies into agricultural planning is critical to reducing vulnerability and safeguarding rural livelihoods in Türkiye.

The Kocakarı Takvimi: Indigenous Climate Knowledge and the Historical Memory of Storms in Türkiye

In Türkiye, long before the emergence of modern meteorology, rural communities relied on an indigenous knowledge system known as the Kocakarı Takvimi, commonly translated as the “Old Women’s Calendar.” This traditional storm calendar is built upon centuries of careful observation of seasonal weather patterns, particularly the timing and intensity of recurring storms. Farmers, shepherds, and seafarers used these empirically derived dates often accurate within a margin of one to two days to guide critical decisions such as sowing, harvesting, livestock movement, and maritime travel. In agrarian societies where livelihoods depended directly on weather stability, this calendar functioned as a practical risk management tool, reducing exposure to climatic shocks and enhancing survival prospects. As Şen (2021) notes, the Kocakarı Takvimi represents a sophisticated form of indigenous climatology, where accumulated experience was transmitted across generations through cultural practice rather than written records.

The historical depth of storm awareness in Anatolia extends far beyond folk calendars and is embedded in ancient belief systems. Climatic forces, particularly storms, were so central to survival that they became deified in early civilizations. The Hittite storm god Tešub, frequently portrayed holding lightning bolts and standing atop mountains, symbolized both destruction and fertility reflecting the dual nature of storms as agents of damage and renewal. This reverence highlights how early Anatolian societies sought to understand, appease, and coexist with powerful atmospheric forces that governed agricultural success and societal stability.

Archaeological evidence reinforces this long-standing engagement with climatic phenomena. The discovery in 2002 of a statue of Tešub, dated to approximately 5000 BCE and unearthed at Kuşadası Kadı Castle, now housed in the Aydın Museum, provides tangible proof of humanity’s enduring effort to interpret and ritualize recurring storms (Ünal, 2019). Together, traditional calendars and archaeological records illustrate that storm prediction in Türkiye is not merely a modern scientific endeavor but a deeply rooted cultural and historical process.

The Meteorological Basis of Seasonal Storms and Integrating Traditional Knowledge

Modern meteorology provides a scientific explanation for the seasonal storm patterns long observed in Türkiye. Storms arise from the complex interaction of pressure systems, jet stream variability, and regional topography. Typically, the collision of contrasting air masses generates strong winds, intense rainfall, and sometimes hail, directly affecting agriculture and infrastructure. For example, the spring storms of April and May usually correspond with the northward progression of the polar front, bringing abrupt temperature shifts and precipitation to the Anatolian plateau. Autumn storms, in contrast, are often linked to the active Mediterranean cyclone season, which can deliver heavy rains, flooding, and damaging winds across coastal and inland agricultural zones (Turkish State Meteorological Service – MGM, 2023). These seasonal mechanisms explain the empirical accuracy of traditional knowledge systems like the Kocakarı Takvimi, which effectively captured these recurring meteorological events.

However, climate change is altering the landscape of storm risk. While traditional storm dates largely persist, their intensity, frequency, and unpredictability are increasing. For instance, the late-spring frost events of 2025, coinciding with the so-called “Blossom Storm” period, were markedly severe, resulting in significant crop losses. Research indicates that extreme rainfall events in the Eastern Mediterranean have increased in intensity by 15–20% over the past three decades, amplifying the destructive potential of seasonal storms (Zittis et al., 2023; MGM, 2025).

This evolving context underscores the importance of integrating traditional knowledge with modern meteorological science. The Kocakarı Takvimi can continue to provide heuristic guidance on high-risk periods, while contemporary forecasts offer precise, short-term predictions to inform adaptive measures. By combining these approaches, farmers can optimize irrigation schedules, adjust fertilization, protect crops physically, and plan harvests more effectively. Such a hybrid strategy enhances agricultural resilience, bridging centuries of cultural experience with the predictive power of modern science to mitigate storm impacts in an era of climate volatility.

Conclusion

The analysis of storms and their impacts on Türkiye’s agriculture highlights a critical intersection of history, culture, and modern science. Agriculture, inherently exposed to atmospheric forces, faces increasing risks as climate change amplifies the intensity, frequency, and unpredictability of extreme weather events. Storms, ranging from intense rainfall and hail to damaging winds and abrupt temperature shifts, affect not only crop yields but also rural infrastructure, supply chains, and the socio-economic stability of smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Türkiye’s agricultural workforce. The cumulative effects of these events extend beyond material losses, undermining investment incentives, food security, and long-term rural livelihoods.

The Kocakarı Takvimi, Türkiye’s traditional storm calendar, demonstrates that indigenous knowledge systems have long played a pivotal role in guiding agricultural decisions and reducing vulnerability. Coupled with archaeological and historical evidence, it illustrates that understanding and anticipating storms is deeply embedded in the cultural fabric of Anatolia. Modern meteorology complements this knowledge by explaining the underlying atmospheric mechanisms and providing precise, short-term forecasts.

Integrating traditional calendars with contemporary scientific tools offers a hybrid strategy that can enhance resilience. Farmers can identify high-risk periods through the heuristic guidance of the Kocakarı Takvimi and implement protective measures informed by meteorological forecasts. Such an approach not only mitigates crop losses but also strengthens food security, safeguards rural livelihoods, and ensures broader economic stability. In an era of climate volatility, combining centuries of empirical wisdom with modern predictive science provides the most robust pathway for sustainable agricultural adaptation in Türkiye.

References: FAO; IPCC; MGM; Şen; TÜİK; Ünal; World Bank; Zittis et al.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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