Pakistan Agriculture: Challenges & Growth Potential

Since independence, agriculture has remained the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, underpinning food security, rural livelihoods, and broader socio-economic development. At the time of independence in 1947, the sector dominated employment and output, providing sustenance and income to a largely agrarian population. Over the decades, however, Pakistan’s agricultural trajectory has been shaped by a complex interaction of demographic pressure, technological change, and environmental stress. Today, the sector stands at a critical crossroads, where sustaining productivity must be reconciled with resource constraints and structural transformation in the rural economy.

In the early post-independence period, agricultural growth was driven primarily by the expansion of cultivated land and irrigation infrastructure. The development of the Indus Basin irrigation system enabled Pakistan to bring approximately 22–24 million hectares under cultivation, forming the foundation of national food production. Initially, productivity gains were modest due to low cropping intensity and limited use of modern input. This changed decisively during the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, when high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice, increased fertilizer application, mechanization, and widespread tubewell irrigation significantly raised yields, particularly in Punjab and Sindh (Kirby et al., 2017). These innovations transformed Pakistan into a food-grain self-sufficient country for several decades.

In recent years, however, the expansionary model has reached its limits. The total cultivated area has stagnated at around 23.5 million hectares, while urbanization and infrastructure development continue to encroach on prime agricultural land. Evidence from Sindh’s Indus Plains indicates agricultural land abandonment rates of 13–14 percent in some districts, largely due to water scarcity, salinity, and declining profitability (Rajpar et al., 2019). Simultaneously, agriculture’s share in national employment has fallen sharply from nearly 65 percent at independence to about 37.4 percent in 2022–23 (Pakistan Economic Survey). While this reflects broader economic diversification, it also signals distress-driven rural out-migration and mounting challenges to the sustainability of Pakistan’s agrarian base.

Crop Production, Mechanization, and Systemic Constraints
Crop production remains the core of Pakistan’s agricultural economy, with major crops, wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize, accounting for more than one-third of agricultural GDP and forming the backbone of national food security and agro-based industries. These crops also dominate land use and public policy attention, particularly through support prices, input subsidies, and irrigation allocation. However, despite the productivity gains achieved during the Green Revolution, the performance of the crop sector in recent decades has been increasingly constrained by structural, technological, and environmental factors.

Agricultural growth has been volatile and, in many years, has failed to keep pace with rapid population growth. Wheat, the country’s staple food, illustrates this challenge clearly. Average wheat yield growth has slowed to around 1 percent per year, which is insufficient to meet rising domestic demand driven by population increase and changing consumption patterns (Haider et al., 2019). Similar yield stagnation is evident in cotton and sugarcane, where productivity gaps persist relative to regional and global benchmarks. These trends have heightened dependence on imports and increased exposure to global price volatility.

Mechanization, a key driver of productivity growth, remains highly uneven across farm sizes and regions. While tractors and mechanical sprayers are commonly used for land preparation and crop protection, critical operations such as precision sowing and harvesting particularly for wheat and rice still rely heavily on manual labor. This is especially pronounced among smallholders, who constitute over 80 percent of farms and typically operate less than five hectares. High machinery costs, limited access to formal credit, and weak custom-hiring services significantly constrain adoption (Mahmood et al., 2025).

These systemic constraints are further intensified by climate change. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and destructive, with the 2022 floods alone causing an estimated USD 3.7 billion in agricultural losses and damaging over 4.4 million acres of cropland (World Bank, 2023). Together, stagnant yields, mechanization gaps, and climate shocks underscore the urgent need for structural reform and climate-resilient investment in Pakistan’s crop production system.

Growing Import Dependence and Strained Export Performance

Pakistan’s agricultural trade performance increasingly reflects underlying structural weaknesses in domestic production, value addition, and market integration. The agricultural trade balance has become progressively strained, with import growth consistently outpacing export earnings. One of the most pressing concerns is the country’s heavy reliance on imported edible oils. Pakistan now imports more than 85 percent of its edible oil requirements, primarily palm oil and soybean oil, creating a substantial and recurring drain on scarce foreign exchange reserves. This dependence persists despite agro-ecological potential for oilseed crops such as canola, sunflower, and soybean, pointing to policy neglect and weak incentives for domestic diversification.

Similarly, recurring wheat imports have become a structural feature rather than an emergency response. In recent years, wheat imports have exceeded 3 million metric tons, reflecting stagnating yields, post-harvest inefficiencies, and population-driven demand pressures (USDA FAS, 2024). These imports not only burden the fiscal and external accounts but also undermine price signals for domestic producers, discouraging long-term investment in productivity-enhancing technologies.

On the export side, Pakistan’s agricultural exports remain narrowly concentrated and largely confined to low-value or semi-processed commodities. Rice is a notable exception in terms of volume, with Pakistan ranking among the world’s leading exporters. However, value capture remains limited due to minimal branding, weak quality differentiation, and low levels of processing. Cotton exports have similarly shifted from raw fiber toward yarn, but progressing up the value chain into finished textiles remains uneven.

Non-traditional exports such as fruits, vegetables, and livestock products offer significant growth potential but face persistent constraints. These include difficulty in meeting international sanitary and phytosanitary standards, weak certification systems, and high post-harvest losses estimated at 25–40 percent. Although the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides opportunities for improved market access and logistics, realizing these gains will require substantial investment in cold chain infrastructure, agro-processing, and quality assurance systems. Without such reforms, Pakistan’s agricultural trade imbalance is likely to persist, reinforcing macroeconomic vulnerability.

Socioeconomic Pressures and the Climate Imperative

Agriculture in Pakistan remains deeply intertwined with rural livelihoods, poverty reduction, and national food security, making its vulnerability to climate change a critical development concern. Despite decades of policy interventions, food insecurity remains widespread. In 2023, an estimated 36.9 percent of the population faced moderate to severe food insecurity (FAO et al., 2023), while child stunting rates have persistently hovered around 38 percent, reflecting chronic deficiencies in both food access and nutritional quality. These outcomes are most pronounced in rural areas, where dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture amplifies household vulnerability to shocks.

Climate change increasingly acts as a threat multiplier, compounding existing structural weaknesses. Pakistan’s per capita water availability has declined sharply to below 1,000 cubic meters per year, officially classifying the country as water scarce. This decline is driven by rapid population growth, inefficient irrigation practices, and changing hydrological patterns linked to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. Smallholder farmers, who dominate the agricultural landscape, are particularly exposed to these stresses, facing higher production risks, unstable incomes, and limited capacity to adapt.

The macroeconomic implications are equally severe. Empirical projections suggest that, in the absence of effective adaptation measures, climate-induced damages could reduce agricultural GDP by as much as 9 percent by 2050 (Khan et al., 2020). Such losses would have cascading effects on employment, rural purchasing power, food prices, and overall economic stability. Climate shocks also increase fiscal pressures through disaster response, food imports, and social protection expenditures.

Looking ahead, demographic pressures intensify the challenge. With the population projected to reach approximately 263 million by 2030, Pakistan will need to increase food production by an estimated 35–55 percent to meet domestic demand (Kirby et al., 2017). Achieving this target under conditions of land, water, and climate constraints is not feasible through conventional, input-intensive approaches alone. Instead, a fundamental transition is required toward knowledge-based, climate-resilient agriculture, emphasizing efficient water use, stress-tolerant crop varieties, improved agronomic practices, and stronger extension and research systems. Without such a shift, the twin goals of food security and rural poverty reduction will remain increasingly elusive.

Policy Imperatives and a Roadmap for Sustainable Transformation

Addressing Pakistan’s agricultural and rural development challenges requires a comprehensive, integrated policy framework that moves beyond fragmented, short-term interventions. Central to this transformation is climate-resilient water management. Expanding the adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems, promoting water-efficient and less water-intensive crops, and rehabilitating canal networks and on-farm watercourses are critical steps to counter acute water scarcity. Efficient water use not only sustains crop productivity but also mitigates the long-term risk of soil salinization and groundwater depletion.

Investment in precision agriculture and research and development forms the second pillar of a sustainable strategy. Developing and disseminating climate-smart seed varieties that are drought- and flood-tolerant, coupled with the integration of digital tools for optimized input application, can enhance productivity while reducing environmental stress. Modern mechanization, aligned with research-driven extension services, is essential for improving efficiency across smallholder farms, which dominate the agricultural landscape.

Inclusive value chain development is equally important. Promoting contract farming arrangements, establishing agro-processing clusters, and strengthening cold storage and logistics infrastructure can reduce post-harvest losses, enhance product quality, and improve competitiveness in global markets. Such measures not only increase farmer incomes but also facilitate export-led diversification in high-value commodities such as fruits, vegetables, and livestock products.

Targeted support for smallholders is necessary to ensure equitable development. Access to affordable credit, crop insurance, and direct incentives for sustainable farming practices can improve resilience, reduce vulnerability to climate shocks, and encourage the adoption of innovative technologies.

Finally, robust monitoring and governance mechanisms are indispensable. Implementing real-time agricultural data systems, reinforcing inter-ministerial coordination, and establishing transparent monitoring frameworks will ensure policy coherence and effective implementation. Collectively, these measures provide a strategic roadmap for transforming Pakistan’s agriculture into a climate-resilient, productive, and inclusive sector capable of meeting national food security and economic development goals.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s agricultural sector has played a central role in shaping the country’s economic and social development since independence, sustaining rural livelihoods, ensuring food security, and supporting national growth. Historical interventions, including the Green Revolution and expansion of irrigation infrastructure, enabled significant gains in productivity and self-sufficiency. However, in recent decades, the sector has faced mounting challenges: stagnant cultivated areas, declining labor participation, yield stagnation, mechanization gaps, and exposure to extreme climate events have collectively constrained its growth potential.

Structural weaknesses are compounded by growing import dependence and limited export diversification. Heavy reliance on imported edible oils and recurring wheat imports reflects production shortfalls, while exports remain concentrated in low-value commodities with minimal value addition. Non-traditional export sectors, though promising, suffer from inadequate infrastructure, high post-harvest losses, and limited compliance with international standards.

Socioeconomic pressures, particularly rural poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, intersect with climate vulnerability, making adaptation imperative. Water scarcity, erratic rainfall, and increasing frequency of extreme events threaten both production and livelihoods. Without targeted interventions, projections indicate potential reductions of up to 9 percent in agricultural GDP by 2050, with cascading effects on employment, nutrition, and national economic stability.

A sustainable transformation requires integrated policies emphasizing climate-resilient water management, precision agriculture, inclusive value chains, targeted smallholder support, and robust governance. By adopting knowledge-driven, climate-smart approaches, Pakistan can enhance productivity, equity, and resilience, ensuring that agriculture continues to underpin national food security, rural prosperity, and long-term economic development. This transition is critical to securing the future of Pakistan’s agrarian economy in the face of demographic, environmental, and market pressures.

References: FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO; Haider et al; Khan et al; Kirby et al; Mahmood et al; Government of Pakistan; Rajpar et al; USDA FAS; World Bank.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is s affiliated with the Institute of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan and can be reached at syedaliammar22@gmail.com

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