Pakistan's Agricultural Crisis: Water Insecurity & Tensions

The suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and India’s unprecedented missile strikes on Pakistani territory in May 2025 have sent shockwaves through the core of Pakistan’s agrarian economy. Punjab and Sindh, the country’s breadbasket regions, rely heavily on the Indus River System for irrigation, accounting for over 80% of Pakistan’s food production. The sudden halt of upstream water flows from India has already triggered a 40% drop in river discharge into Pakistan, according to remote sensing data from SUPARCO and NASA (2025). Coupled with damage to irrigation infrastructure from military strikes in Bahawalpur and Jacobabad, the situation poses an acute risk to national food security.

Agriculture, which employs 38.5% of Pakistan’s labor force and contributes 23.7% to GDP (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2025), cannot absorb such simultaneous shocks without severe consequences. Initial projections by the Planning Commission estimate that wheat and cotton output may fall by 30% and 45%, respectively, in the upcoming Kharif season. This could escalate inflation, increase rural unemployment, and force an additional 12 million people below the poverty line.

The weaponization of water, a clear violation of international norms, underscores Pakistan’s strategic vulnerability and lack of water resilience. Without emergency mitigation measures such as aggressive groundwater mobilization, canal desilting, and high-efficiency irrigation (e.g., drip systems), large-scale crop failures are imminent. Moreover, the crisis amplifies the need for diplomatic recalibration, regional water treaties enforcement, and investment in hydrological independence through dam expansions and transboundary water monitoring. As the specter of water wars grows more real, Pakistan must act swiftly to defend both its sovereignty and food security.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Lifeline Under Siege

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, has long been a cornerstone of water diplomacy in South Asia. It granted Pakistan rights to 80% of the Indus Basin’s total flow via the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India retained control over the eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Despite enduring the turbulence of three Indo-Pakistani wars and ongoing diplomatic hostilities, the treaty has remained largely intact for over six decades. However, India’s unilateral suspension of the IWT on April 24, 2025, following the Pahalgam tourist attack and accusations against Pakistan, marks a dangerous precedent. This move immediately terminated real-time hydrological data sharing, undermining Pakistan’s ability to manage irrigation cycles, prepare for flood events, and maintain reservoir efficiency.

The fallout has already hit the grassroots. Ali Haider Dogar, a wheat farmer in Bhakkar District, previously lost PKR 1.2 million due to a surprise water surge from India’s Sutlej River in 2023. Now, with the suspension in place, he fears India could weaponize sediment flushing from upstream dams, disrupting irrigation infrastructure during critical sowing windows. “Without flood warnings, we’re blind,” he told The Guardian in May 2025.

Experts echo these concerns. Dr. Usman Mustafa of IFPRI cautions that new Indian hydropower projects, such as the Ratle Dam on the Chenab River, could decrease Pakistan’s water availability by 15–20% during dry periods. Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP), adds: “India’s refusal to share upstream discharge data is a silent weapon, Pakistan’s canal scheduling and flood risk management rely on this predictability” (Al Jazeera, 2025). In the absence of real-time data, Pakistan’s food systems face a mounting threat, one not from drought alone, but from engineered uncertainty.

Military Escalation and Agricultural Disruption

The geopolitical crisis intensified in early May 2025 with India’s aggression (May 6–10), aimed at dismantling suspected militant infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. However, the campaign’s spillover effects on civilian infrastructure have had devastating consequences for agriculture. Cross-border shelling and aerial strikes damaged irrigation canals, flattened fields, and displaced thousands. According to the UNHCR, over 25,000 farming families have been forced to abandon their homes, while Dawn (May 2025) reported that 40% of Kotli District’s apple orchards, valued at $50 million, were destroyed. The resulting instability disrupted wheat supply chains across Punjab and northern Sindh, placing the national food system under immense strain. The FAO estimates a shortfall of 1.5 million metric tons in wheat, compounding food inflation and worsening food insecurity across Pakistan.

The fallout spans key crops. Wheat, Pakistan’s staple, is projected to see a 20% yield decline due to erratic canal flows, translating to a PKR 300 billion economic loss. Rice, one of Pakistan’s top exports, is under threat due to water unpredictability, placing $2.2 billion in annual exports at risk and already contributing to a 30% surge in global rice prices. Sugarcane farmers, heavily reliant on groundwater, face a 15% production drop as 60% of Sindh and Punjab’s aquifers are now overexploited.

Globally, the ramifications are sobering. India and Pakistan jointly account for 36% of the world’s rice exports (UN Comtrade, 2024). A prolonged conflict could destabilize food security in major importers like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. Simultaneously, China’s dam construction along the Tibetan Plateau, the Indus River’s source, has sparked fears of a regional precedent for water weaponization. Khalid Khokhar, head of Pakistan Kissan Ittehad, starkly noted: “If India stops water, it’s war. Our farmers cannot survive without canal systems” (Reuters, May 2025). The weaponization of water risks turning agrarian vulnerability into geopolitical catastrophe.

Pathways to Mitigation

In the face of escalating water insecurity and geopolitical tensions, Pakistan must urgently pursue a multi-track strategy to safeguard its agricultural future. First, international arbitration remains a critical tool. Article IX of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) provides for a neutral dispute resolution mechanism through the World Bank. Pakistan must invoke this clause to demand third-party mediation and restoration of real-time hydrological data sharing. The European Union and the United States, both with vested interests in regional stability and food security, must pressure India diplomatically to de-escalate and uphold treaty obligations.

Second, Pakistan’s chronic lack of water storage infrastructure has left it dangerously exposed. The country currently stores less than 10% of its annual Indus River flows, compared to the global average of 40%. Investing in small-scale, climate-resilient water infrastructure such as farm ponds, community reservoirs, and solar-powered drip irrigation systems can dramatically reduce wastage and buffer against supply shocks. These decentralized systems are particularly critical for tail-end farmers in Sindh and southern Punjab who are often the first to suffer from upstream disruptions.

Third, Pakistan must reimagine its crop portfolio. With rice and sugarcane consuming over 60% of irrigation water, a gradual transition to less water-intensive crops is essential. Millets, sorghum, and pulses, already adapted to arid conditions, can reduce agricultural water use by 25%, according to ICARDA (2024). These crops not only require less water but also improve soil health and offer nutritional benefits, aligning with both sustainability and food security goals.

Together, these mitigation pathways, leveraging diplomatic pressure, expanding climate-resilient infrastructure, and shifting to smarter crop choices, can help Pakistan counter the dual threats of water weaponization and climate volatility. Long-term resilience will require coordinated action across foreign policy, agriculture, and water governance to secure the future of the country’s 38 million-strong rural farming population.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s agrarian future hangs in the balance as water insecurity and regional tensions converge into a perfect storm. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and military strikes on civilian farming zones have not only disrupted irrigation and destroyed crops but also exposed the fragility of Pakistan’s food system. With agricultural production expected to plummet, inflation to rise, and millions at risk of poverty and displacement, this crisis is no longer hypothetical, it is unfolding in real time. The weaponization of water, once considered an abstract threat, is now a lived reality for millions of farmers in Punjab and Sindh.

However, Pakistan still has agency. Through strategic diplomacy, climate-resilient investments, and crop diversification, it can begin to insulate its agricultural backbone from external shocks. International arbitration under Article IX of the IWT must be pursued immediately, while urgent funding is needed for local water storage, irrigation efficiency, and alternative cropping systems. This is not merely about preserving crop yields, it is about safeguarding national sovereignty, food security, and the livelihoods of nearly 40% of the labor force. The time for action is now. Failure to adapt swiftly could turn this water crisis into a prolonged national catastrophe.

References: World Bank; FAO; Reuters; Al Jazeera; Stimson Center; Pakistan Economic Survey; Guardian; UN Comtrade; ICARDA

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at ayeshaghouri644@gmail.com

Related Stories