Pakistan's Climate Crisis: Agriculture & Health Threats

Climate change is emerging as one of the most pressing threats to Pakistan’s food security and public health, dramatically transforming the country’s environmental and socio-economic landscape. Shifting temperature patterns, unpredictable rainfall, glacial melting, and more frequent extreme weather events are disrupting ecosystems and livelihoods. The devastating 2022 floods, which displaced over 33 million people and caused more than $30 billion in economic damage (UNDP, 2023), serve as a stark reminder of the country’s vulnerability.

One of the sectors most affected is agriculture, which contributes 22.7% to the national GDP and employs nearly 37% of the labor force (Pakistan Economic Survey 2023–24). Erratic monsoon cycles, increased frequency of droughts, and rising heatwaves have led to declining crop yields, especially for key staples such as wheat, rice, and maize. Water scarcity is intensifying due to declining river flows and groundwater depletion, undermining irrigation and livestock production in rural areas. Without urgent adaptation measures, these trends threaten the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers and the stability of national food systems.

Simultaneously, climate change is accelerating the spread of climate-sensitive diseases. Rising temperatures and stagnant floodwater have contributed to an uptick in vector-borne illnesses such as dengue, malaria, and chikungunya, particularly in urban slums and flood-affected regions. Waterborne diseases like cholera and typhoid have also surged due to contamination of drinking water sources. These growing health threats place an enormous burden on Pakistan’s overstretched and under-resourced healthcare system.

Addressing this dual challenge requires integrated action that links agricultural resilience with public health preparedness. Investments in climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems, clean water infrastructure, and disease surveillance are essential. Without coordinated policy interventions, climate change will continue to erode Pakistan’s developmental gains and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities across rural and urban populations.

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Public Health in Pakistan

Climate change is reshaping Pakistan’s agricultural and public health landscapes in increasingly severe and interconnected ways. Agriculture, which underpins both food security and rural livelihoods, is facing alarming disruption due to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and intensifying climate extremes. Wheat production is projected to decline by 8–10% by 2050 due to higher temperatures and shortened growing seasons (World Bank, 2023), while water scarcity threatens rice cultivation, potentially reducing yields by 15% (FAO, 2023). In 2024, Sindh experienced an unprecedented 53°C heatwave, leading to widespread crop failures in cotton and maize. Livestock systems are equally vulnerable, dairy cattle exposed to prolonged heat stress have shown a 20–30% drop in milk output (LUMS, 2023), and recurring droughts are limiting fodder availability, resulting in widespread livestock malnutrition.

Infrastructure is also at risk. The catastrophic floods of 2022 wiped out 4.4 million acres of cropland (NDMA, 2023), while glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in northern regions endanger vital irrigation systems and water supply networks.

On the public health front, climate change is driving a surge in disease and malnutrition. Warmer temperatures and stagnant floodwaters have fueled a 70% rise in dengue cases in 2023 (Pakistan Health Ministry), and waterborne illnesses like diarrhea continue to claim the lives of one in five children under five (UNICEF, 2023). Meanwhile, food insecurity exacerbated by climate-induced crop failures has intensified malnutrition, with 40% of Pakistani children under five suffering from stunting (WFP, 2023). Air pollution linked to winter smog in Punjab has caused a 30% increase in asthma cases (WHO, 2023), and extreme summer heatwaves have led to more frequent heatstroke-related deaths.

Integrated Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture and Public Health

Adapting to the growing threats of climate change requires Pakistan to adopt a multi-pronged approach that addresses both agricultural sustainability and public health preparedness. In the agricultural sector, climate-smart farming practices are at the forefront of resilience-building. The adoption of drought- and heat-tolerant crop varieties in Sindh, particularly climate-resilient wheat, is already helping reduce vulnerability to temperature extremes. Precision irrigation methods, such as drip and sprinkler systems increasingly seen in Punjab, are significantly improving water use efficiency and minimizing waste in water-scarce regions.

Agroforestry and afforestation efforts also contribute to climate adaptation. The national "10 billion Tree Tsunami" campaign is combating desertification and restoring degraded land, while intercropping systems such as wheat grown alongside chickpeas improve soil fertility and reduce reliance on chemical inputs. On the livestock front, shading structures, fans, and evaporative cooling systems are helping farmers reduce heat stress in cattle. Similarly, rainwater harvesting structures are being implemented to ensure water availability during drought periods.

Public health adaptation strategies are equally critical. Disease surveillance systems are being strengthened, and dengue vaccination trials are expanding in high-risk urban zones. Mobile health clinics are reaching displaced communities after floods, while climate-health education programs are being integrated into schools, mosques, and community forums to raise awareness. Early warning systems for extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves and flash floods are being deployed through SMS alerts and radio broadcasts.

Policy and infrastructure reform form the foundation for sustainable adaptation. Stricter enforcement of air pollution control laws aims to reduce the frequency and severity of smog episodes, particularly in urban Punjab. Water infrastructure investments under initiatives like the Clean Green Pakistan Program are enhancing access to safe drinking water and sanitation, reducing disease incidence. Together, these agricultural and health interventions form a comprehensive strategy to build climate resilience across Pakistan’s most vulnerable communities.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s climate crisis represents a dual challenge, endangering both the agricultural sector that feeds the nation and the public health systems that protect its people. The convergence of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events is threatening crop yields, damaging rural infrastructure, and accelerating the spread of disease. Left unchecked, these changes could severely undermine food security, economic stability, and the health of millions, especially among the most vulnerable populations.

However, this crisis also presents an opportunity to strengthen resilience through coordinated, forward-looking action. Climate-smart agricultural practices such as drought-tolerant crops, precision irrigation, and intercropping offer immediate and scalable solutions to reduce vulnerability. Simultaneously, targeted public health interventions including disease surveillance, vaccination campaigns, and improved sanitation infrastructure are essential to reduce the human toll of climate-related illnesses.

Adaptation must be embedded across policy, planning, and investment frameworks. This means greater collaboration between ministries of agriculture, health, water, and climate change, and a focus on community-level implementation. It also demands enhanced public awareness and education to build a culture of resilience. Ultimately, by aligning agricultural sustainability with public health preparedness, Pakistan can not only mitigate the risks of climate change but also safeguard its developmental future, ensuring a healthier, more secure, and climate-resilient society for generations to come.

References: UNDP; World Bank; FAO; Pakistan Health Ministry; NDMA; Pakistan Economic Survey; LUMS; UNICEF; WFP; WHO

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Health and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.

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