Pakistan's Climate Crisis: Urgent Challenges Ahead

Climate change is no longer a distant or abstract threat; it has become a pervasive and lived reality, particularly for developing countries that possess limited adaptive capacity. Pakistan stands at the epicenter of this global crisis, experiencing climate impacts with disproportionate intensity relative to its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. The country has entered an era of acute climatic volatility marked by intensifying heatwaves, erratic and concentrated rainfall, accelerated glacial melt, prolonged droughts, and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Together, these stressors are undermining food security, degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and weakening economic stability, rendering climate adaptation a matter of national survival rather than long-term planning.

Empirical evidence underscores the severity of Pakistan’s exposure. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 ranked Pakistan as the eighth most affected country by extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019 (Eckstein et al., 2021), reflecting repeated losses from floods, storms, and heat extremes. This chronic vulnerability was dramatically exposed in 2022, when unprecedented monsoon rains inundated nearly one-third of the country. According to the World Bank’s Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (2023), the floods caused damages exceeding USD 30 billion, affected approximately 33 million people, and resulted in nearly 1,700 fatalities. Beyond immediate destruction, the floods disrupted livelihoods, displaced communities, damaged agricultural land, and strained already fragile health and social protection systems.

These events are consistent with projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2023), which warns of increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and flooding across South Asia due to anthropogenic climate change. Pakistan’s heightened vulnerability is further shaped by its geographic and socio-economic context. Home to over 7,200 glaciers in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan ranges, one of the largest glacial reserves outside the polar regions, the country is highly sensitive to rising temperatures and glacial lake outburst floods. When combined with high population density, heavy dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, infrastructure deficits, and limited institutional capacity, these factors create a compounding risk environment that amplifies climate shocks and constrains recovery.

Anthropogenic Drivers and the Paradox of Climate Responsibility in Pakistan

Despite contributing only, a marginal share to global greenhouse gas emissions, approximately 0.9 percent of the global total, Pakistan faces a profound paradox of climate responsibility and vulnerability (Climate Watch, 2024). While global inequities in emissions place the primary burden of climate change on industrialized economies, Pakistan’s domestic development pathways have intensified local environmental stress and amplified climate risks. These anthropogenic drivers interact with global warming to deepen the country’s exposure to extreme weather and ecological degradation.

Deforestation and land-use change represent a critical pressure point. Large-scale clearing of forests for agriculture, fuelwood, and urban expansion has steadily reduced Pakistan’s forest cover, weakening natural carbon sinks and watershed protection. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2020), continued forest loss has heightened soil erosion, reduced biodiversity, and increased the severity of floods by limiting the landscape’s capacity to absorb and regulate water flows. These impacts are particularly pronounced in upstream catchments, where deforestation accelerates downstream flooding.

Rapid and largely unplanned urbanization further compounds climate vulnerability. Expanding cities, often without adequate zoning or drainage infrastructure, have created dense heat islands and impermeable surfaces that exacerbate heat stress and urban flooding. Industrial expansion and transport congestion contribute to worsening air, water, and land pollution, undermining public health and environmental quality.

Agriculture, while central to livelihoods and food security, is another major driver of environmental stress. The sector employs over 37 percent of the labor force but remains dominated by water-intensive crops, inefficient flood irrigation, and excessive fertilizer use. These practices degrade soil health, deplete groundwater reserves, and increase methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly from rice cultivation and livestock systems.

Finally, energy inefficiency and reliance on fossil fuels sustain local pollution and economic vulnerability. While Pakistan’s overall carbon footprint remains low by global standards, outdated energy systems and chronic power shortages hinder sustainable development. Collectively, these anthropogenic pressures highlight that although Pakistan is not a major global emitter, domestic policy and planning choices significantly shape its climate resilience and environmental trajectory.

Escalating Natural Hazards and Climate Feedback in Pakistan

Human-induced climate change is no longer acting in isolation; it is activating powerful natural feedback loops that are intensifying environmental hazards across Pakistan. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and ecosystem stress are reinforcing one another, creating compounding risks that threaten water security, livelihoods, and long-term ecological stability.

One of the most critical manifestations is the rapid destabilization of the cryosphere in northern Pakistan. Accelerated warming in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan region has sharply increased glacial melt rates, undermining the long-term reliability of the Indus River System, which sustains agriculture, hydropower, and urban water supply nationwide. In the short term, this accelerated melt has led to the formation of thousands of glacial lakes, substantially elevating the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). According to UNDP estimates (2023), more than 3,000 glacial lakes now exist in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with at least 33 classified as highly dangerous, posing imminent threats to downstream communities and infrastructure.

Climate change is also destabilizing Pakistan’s monsoon system and intensifying heat extremes. Shifts in ocean–atmosphere dynamics, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, have increased monsoon unpredictability, resulting in alternating cycles of catastrophic flooding and prolonged drought. At the same time, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe. Record-breaking temperatures exceeding 50°C in cities such as Jacobabad and Sibi in recent years reflect a broader warming trend that aligns closely with national climate projections (PMD, 2024), with serious implications for human health, labor productivity, and crop viability.

These climatic stresses are compounded by widespread ecosystem degradation. The decline of mangrove forests in the Indus Delta has weakened natural defenses against cyclones and storm surges, while the degradation of wetlands and loss of biodiversity have eroded essential ecosystem services. Together, this feedback demonstrate how climate change is amplifying natural hazards and diminishing Pakistan’s capacity to absorb and recover from environmental shocks.

Socio-Economic Consequences and the Challenge of Climate Governance in Pakistan

The socio-economic consequences of climate change in Pakistan extend from rural farms to rapidly expanding cities, affecting livelihoods, public services, and long-term development prospects. Agriculture, the backbone of rural employment and food security, is increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, erratic rainfall, and water scarcity. Staple crops such as wheat and cotton are already experiencing yield instability, undermining farmer incomes and increasing dependence on food imports. These pressures ripple through the broader economy. The Asian Development Bank (2023) estimates that climate-related damages could reduce Pakistan’s annual GDP by up to 9 percent by 2030, a loss that would severely constrain poverty reduction and fiscal stability.

Water stress has emerged as a central transmission channel of climate risk. Reduced river flows, declining groundwater tables, and unpredictable hydropower generation threaten both energy security and industrial productivity. During extreme heat events, electricity demand for cooling rises sharply, straining an already fragile power system and increasing the likelihood of outages. Public health impacts are similarly severe. Heatwaves have led to rising cases of heatstroke and cardiovascular stress; while flooding and poor sanitation have fueled outbreaks of water-borne diseases. Air pollution, exacerbated by higher temperatures and urban congestion, further compounds health costs, particularly for children and the elderly.

Climate stress is also reshaping population dynamics. As rural livelihoods become less viable, climate-induced migration toward urban centers is accelerating. Cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Faisalabad face mounting pressure on housing, water supply, transport, and employment, deepening informal settlements and social inequality. This rural–urban spillover highlights that climate change is not solely an environmental issue but a driver of structural socio-economic transformation.

In response, Pakistan has articulated an ambitious climate policy framework. Instruments such as the National Climate Change Policy (2021), the National Adaptation Plan (2023), the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program, and the Living Indus Initiative collectively signal strong political intent. However, implementation gaps remain substantial. Limited and uncertain financing, weak inter-institutional coordination, and inadequate monitoring and evaluation have constrained impact. While donor-supported initiatives, including Green Climate Fund projects, represent meaningful progress, scaling these efforts to match the magnitude of risk remains Pakistan’s most pressing climate governance challenge.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s climate crisis illustrates a stark convergence of global inequity, domestic vulnerability, and urgent development challenges. Despite its negligible contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country is experiencing some of the most severe and disruptive impacts of climate change, ranging from catastrophic floods and intensifying heatwaves to accelerating glacial melt and chronic water stress. These pressures are no longer episodic shocks; they represent a systemic threat to food security, public health, economic stability, and social cohesion. The evidence presented in this article demonstrates that climate change in Pakistan is deeply intertwined with structural factors, including dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, unplanned urbanization, ecosystem degradation, and institutional constraints.

While Pakistan has articulated an ambitious climate policy framework, the gap between intent and implementation remains substantial. Fragmented governance, limited fiscal space, and weak coordination continue to undermine the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation efforts. At the same time, escalating climate risks are reshaping livelihoods, accelerating rural–urban migration, and amplifying inequality, underscoring that climate change is not only an environmental concern but a central development challenge.

Moving forward, resilience must become the organizing principle of national planning. This requires integrating climate adaptation into economic policy, strengthening institutions, investing in nature-based solutions, and prioritizing vulnerable communities. Equally important is sustained international climate finance and technology transfer, reflecting principles of climate justice. Without decisive and coordinated action, climate change will continue to erode development gains; with it, Pakistan can still chart a more resilient and equitable future.

References: ADB; Eckstein et al; FAO; IPCC; MoCC; PMD; UNDP; World Bank; WRI.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writers are affiliated with the 1Institute of Agricultural & Resource Economics, & Center for 2Agricultural Policy, Law & Governance, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad Pakistan and can be reached at saba.javed@uaf.edu.pk

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