Pakistan’s Deepening Hunger Crisis: Climate Change and Food Insecurity

Pakistan has long identified itself as an agricultural nation, a land nourished by the mighty Indus River and sustained by the labor of millions of farmers across its fertile plains. For decades, the country’s agrarian base ensured self-sufficiency in staple crops like wheat and rice, earning it a reputation as a food-secure state and a modest exporter within South Asia. However, this foundation of food security has steadily eroded, replaced by a structural crisis that now threatens both livelihoods and national stability. The country’s descent into food insecurity is no longer cyclical or temporary; it is systemic, shaped by a complex interplay of climate shocks, water mismanagement, and economic fragility.

The accelerating force behind this decline is climate change. Pakistan is among the world’s ten most climate-vulnerable nations, and the evidence is now undeniable. The catastrophic floods of 2022 submerged one-third of the country, destroying nearly half of Sindh’s croplands, killing livestock, and displacing millions. Just two years later, the floods of 2024 inflicted another round of devastation, compounding losses that communities had yet to recover from. Each disaster deepens rural indebtedness, undermines supply chains, and drives up food prices in cities.

These events signify more than natural disasters; they mark a structural unraveling of Pakistan’s food system. With declining productivity, shrinking arable land, and worsening affordability, the country faces a dual crisis: feeding its growing population and preserving the livelihoods that once sustained it. Unless immediate measures are taken to build climate resilience, improve water governance, and strengthen rural economies, Pakistan risks transitioning from an agricultural state to one chronically dependent on food imports. The warning is clear; the nation’s food crisis is no longer a temporary emergency but a defining challenge of its future.

The Erosion of a Food-Secure Foundation

In the decades after independence, Pakistan’s Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s marked a historic turning point. Through the expansion of canal irrigation networks, the adoption of high-yielding wheat and rice varieties, and the mechanization of farm operations, Pakistan achieved remarkable gains in food production. Wheat self-sufficiency became a source of national pride, while rice exports, particularly from Sindh and Punjab, established Pakistan as one of the world’s leading suppliers (World Bank, 2022). For a time, the country appeared to have secured its agrarian foundation, one that could feed a growing population and support economic growth.

Yet, beneath this success lay deep structural weaknesses. The very systems that powered the Green Revolution, over-reliance on canal irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and a narrow focus on staple crops, gradually degraded the soil, depleted groundwater, and discouraged crop diversity. Population growth, which has more than tripled since the 1960s, placed enormous strain on finite land and water resources. Meanwhile, inconsistent agricultural policies, weak extension services, and inadequate investment in research and climate adaptation steadily undermined productivity.

The 2010 floods should have served as a wake-up call, revealing how quickly gains could be erased by climate shocks. Instead, the lessons went largely unheeded. When the unprecedented floods of 2022 arrived, they submerged millions of acres of farmland and destroyed rural infrastructure on an unmatched scale. The 2024 inundations followed before recovery were complete, compounding losses and driving farmers into cycles of debt and displacement.

These consecutive crises have stripped away any illusion of resilience. Pakistan’s food system, once celebrated for its productivity, now stands exposed as brittle and unsustainable. The erosion of its food-secure foundation is not merely an agricultural problem; it is a national emergency that threatens economic stability, rural livelihoods, and social cohesion alike.

Impacts of Recent Floods on Agriculture and Food Security

Floods disrupt agriculture in a multitude of ways: destroying standing crops, killing livestock, displacing communities, and shattering infrastructure. The 2022 super-floods submerged nearly a third of the country, displaced 33 million people, and destroyed over 4.4 million acres of crops, leading to the death of over 1.2 million livestock (PDNA, 2022; FAO, 2022). The FAO estimated that yields of vital crops like wheat, rice, and cotton in affected districts fell by 20–40%.

While the article mentions 2025 floods, the most recent major flooding event for which data is available occurred in 2024. These floods, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, have further deepened the crisis. Preliminary assessments from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA, 2024) indicate that over 1.5 million acres of farmland were affected, with maize and sugarcane losses exceeding 30% in several districts. The cotton crop, vital for the textile industry, was again devastated, with production expected to fall by over 35% in key regions.

The immediate result is a catastrophic loss of productivity and soaring food prices. After the 2022 floods, flour prices rose by over 40% in Sindh and Balochistan, and vegetable prices doubled within weeks (WFP, 2022). The 2024 floods have reignited these inflationary pressures. Disrupted supply chains from Punjab to Karachi sent vegetable and fruit prices soaring by 30-40%, while dairy costs hit record highs due to fodder loss (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2024).

The long-term impacts are equally severe. Waterlogging and salinity degrade soil fertility for subsequent seasons, while farmers face the next planting season without seeds, fertilizer, or capital. This translates into a vicious cycle of debt and diminished future harvests.

The Human Cost: Nutrition, Displacement, and Instability

At its core, food insecurity is not just an economic issue, it is a crisis of human survival, dignity, and social stability. The floods of 2022 displaced more than 8 million people across Pakistan, many of whom lost not only their homes but also their sources of income and nutrition. In makeshift shelters and relief camps, conditions quickly deteriorated. Access to clean drinking water and adequate sanitation was minimal, fueling outbreaks of waterborne diseases. According to UNICEF (2022), child malnutrition reached alarming levels in flood-affected areas, with wasting and stunting rates surging well beyond emergency thresholds. These conditions have left a lasting imprint on an entire generation, undermining both physical health and cognitive development.

The human toll extends far beyond the immediate aftermath of disaster. The recurrence of extreme floods has led to patterns of pre-emptive displacement, as families migrate from flood-prone rural districts of Sindh and southern Punjab to already overcrowded urban centers. This internal migration places immense strain on urban infrastructure, inflates food and housing costs, and fosters social tensions between host and migrant communities.

The World Food Program (WFP, 2024) warns that the loss of rural livelihoods and chronic uncertainty drives vulnerable households to adopt dangerous coping mechanisms, selling productive assets, pulling children out of school, or skipping meals to survive. These short-term strategies deepen the poverty trap and erode resilience, pushing families further into dependence and despair. The human cost of Pakistan’s food insecurity crisis is thus measured not only in hunger but in the erosion of stability, opportunity, and hope.

Inter-Provincial Rift and Governance Challenges

Floods repeatedly expose and exacerbate divisions between Pakistan’s provinces. In 2022, Sindh accused the federal government of neglect, while Balochistan protested that its remote communities were ignored. The 2024 floods have reignited these disputes, with Sindh again blaming Punjab for upstream water mismanagement and accusations surfacing of politicized relief distribution (ICG, 2024).

Such rifts obstruct coordinated recovery and weaken national resilience. Agricultural rehabilitation requires cross-provincial cooperation, yet mistrust delays critical action. Without bridging these divides, Pakistan risks transforming food insecurity from a humanitarian challenge into a permanent political fault line.

Policy Failures: A Cycle of Reaction Over Resilience

Pakistan’s worsening food insecurity is not merely the outcome of natural disasters, it is the direct result of persistent policy failures and institutional inertia. Over decades, the nation’s approach to food and disaster management has been overwhelmingly reactive rather than preventive. Each flood, drought, or heatwave triggers an emergency response, yet little is done to build resilience before the next catastrophe strikes. Despite possessing one of the world’s largest irrigation networks, early-warning systems, and extensive agricultural institutions, Pakistan’s preparedness remains weak. Warnings issued before floods often fail to reach small farmers in time, and even when they do, limited resources prevent meaningful action.

Financial protection for farmers is virtually nonexistent. Crop insurance schemes are limited in scope, slow in delivery, and inaccessible to most smallholders, leaving them trapped in cycles of loss and debt after every disaster. Relief efforts, when launched, are too often shaped by political patronage rather than need, deepening inequality and public disillusionment. Meanwhile, long-term resilience strategies such as investment in flood-resilient seeds, modern drainage, and efficient water governance are repeatedly sidelined in favor of short-term fixes.

This reactive mindset perpetuates vulnerability. Without robust institutions, transparent governance, and sustained commitment to climate-smart agriculture, Pakistan’s food system will continue to buckle under every shock. Building resilience requires shifting from political expediency to policy continuity, anchoring national security, economic stability, and human well-being in sustainable food and climate governance.

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads where its identity as an agricultural nation confronts the reality of a climate-stressed, food-insecure future. The repeated floods of 2022 and 2024 have not only washed away crops and infrastructure but have exposed the systemic weaknesses in governance, planning, and resilience. What was once a story of abundance and self-sufficiency has become a struggle for survival, with millions displaced, malnourished, and trapped in cycles of poverty and debt. The country’s reliance on reactive crisis management rather than preventive, science-based planning has deepened the vulnerability of its food systems and eroded public trust in institutions.

The path forward demands a structural shift in both policy and mindset. Investing in climate-smart agriculture, equitable water governance, and social protection is no longer optional, it is an existential necessity. Strengthening provincial cooperation, depoliticizing relief efforts, and promoting long-term adaptation can restore not just productivity but dignity and stability to rural communities. If Pakistan is to reclaim its agricultural promise, it must transition from responding to disasters to preparing for them. Only through resilience-driven reform can the nation secure a future where no citizen goes hungry and where the next flood does not erase decades of progress.

References: FAO; ICG; NDMA; PBS; PDNA; SBP; UNICEF; World Bank; WFP

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is a former Pakistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to FAO, WFP, & IFAD and can be reached at nriyaz60@gmail.com

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