Pakistan's Mangrove Forests: Ecological Recovery

Mangroves are vital coastal ecosystems that flourish in the intertidal zones of tropical and subtropical regions (Jia et al., 2023). They deliver a wide range of ecological and societal benefits, including biodiversity conservation, natural protection against storms, and significant carbon storage that contributes to climate change mitigation (Zhao et al., 2023). Around the world, mangroves support millions of people by providing diverse resources and livelihoods (Luo et al., 2025). Despite their immense value, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by human-driven pressures such as logging, expanding urban development, and the growing impacts of climate change (Saoum & Sarkar, 2024).

Such disturbances directly alter mangrove functioning and the services they provide, affecting everything from patch size and connectivity which influence ecosystem stability and fish populations to the retention of organic matter and coastal protection (Carugati et al., 2018). The resulting loss of biodiversity and reduced carbon sequestration capacity can trigger cascading ecological consequences (Dabala et al., 2023). Moreover, human activities have been clearly linked to declines in the spatial complexity of mangrove landscapes, further underscoring their vulnerability (Liu et al., 2022). Understanding the extent, structure, and spatial dynamics of mangroves is therefore critical for designing effective national conservation strategies, assessing their response to climate change, and identifying the underlying causes of mangrove degradation (Mihautiate, 2023).

The Indus Delta in Pakistan is home to one of the world’s largest arid-climate mangrove ecosystems, spanning nearly 600,000 hectares (Mehmood et al., 2025). Located along the coastline where the Indus River meets the Arabian Sea, this vast delta forms a dynamic environment that supports diverse plant and wildlife communities. Like other coastal mangrove systems, the Avicennia marina–dominated forests of the Indus Delta play essential ecological roles, including shoreline protection, carbon sequestration, and the conservation of biodiversity (Haseeba et al., 2025). In semi-arid tropical regions, mangroves function as important sinks for terrestrial nutrients; however, Pakistan’s mangroves have undergone severe degradation in recent decades due to reduced freshwater inflows, land-use changes, and climate-induced stresses (Liu et al., 2024a). Reflecting global trends, these forests have experienced continuous loss over the past 50 years (Bhatti et al., 2023). Restoration efforts began in the early 1990s (Qureshi, 1993), and large-scale initiatives have since helped expand mangrove cover back to nearly 600,000 hectares (Ahmed et al., 2025). Today, around 90% of Pakistan’s mangroves are found in Sindh Province, which hosts the largest dry-climate mangrove forest on the planet. The country has become an active participant in global restoration movements such as the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) and has used platforms like World Environment Day to highlight the critical role that rapid mangrove recovery can play in reducing ecosystem loss and supporting coastal livelihoods (Akçakaya et al., 2020).

Studies offering a long-term integrated perspective of Pakistani mangrove forest dynamics are scant. Assessing long-term spatial and structural changes in these forests is paramount to evaluating conservation efforts and understanding the relationship between mangrove rehabilitation and wider ecological trends. Mangroves are highly important for the ecosystems as a nature-based solution for climate change adaptation and sustainable development. Focusing on the restoration of the Indus Delta mangroves also enhances the universal understanding of mangrove rehabilitation in arid and semi-arid environments, complementing global efforts led by initiatives such as the Global Mangrove Alliance.

The Indus River Delta

The Indus River Delta in Sindh Province, Pakistan, experiences average temperatures of 10–21 °C during winter and 21–30 °C in summer (Amjad et al., 2016). Characterized by an arid climate, the region receives less than 200 mm of annual rainfall. Despite these harsh conditions, the Delta sustains rich biodiversity, provides natural coastal protection, and supports the livelihoods of local communities (Masood et al., 2024). However, these mangrove forests face a range of anthropogenic and natural pressures, underscoring the importance of focused conservation and research efforts. The study area covers the entire coastal belt of Sindh (Hussain & Rahman, 2022), a landscape shaped by the combined influence of the Indus River and the Arabian Sea. The Sindh Forest Department oversees mangrove protection, supporting ecological services that benefit more than 28,000 coastal households across the Delta (UNEP, 2024).

The Indus Delta contains 97% of Pakistan’s mangroves, occupying about 37% of the Delta’s total area, while the remaining 3% is found along the Balochistan coast (Gilani et al., 2021). Today, only four mangrove species remain in the coastal regions of Sindh and Balochistan. Avicennia marina (Gray Mangrove) is the most dominant, particularly within the Indus Delta. Rhizophora mucronata (Red Mangrove), Ceriops tagal (Spurred Mangrove), and Aegiceras corniculatum (River Mangrove) persist in much smaller populations. Historically, additional species were present, but deforestation, pollution, and declining freshwater inflows have led to their disappearance from these areas (Rafique, 2018).

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Pakistan mangrove forests

The spatial distribution of Pakistan’s mangrove forests is heavily concentrated in the Indus Delta, which contains the vast majority of the country’s mangrove cover. Ahmed et al. (2025) provide a comprehensive assessment of the historical trends, current conditions, and future outlook of these ecosystems, using advanced monitoring tools to identify both progress and persistent challenges. Their findings reveal a clear upward trend in mangrove cover over the past several decades. Mangrove area declined slightly from 50,973.39 ha in 1990 to 49,253.11 ha in 2000, but rebounded to 70,760.38 ha by 2010. This recovery continued, rising to 100,462.56 ha in 2020 and 101,446.64 ha in 2023, illustrating substantial growth over 33 years. Within the Indus Delta, districts such as Karachi West, Karachi South, Malir, and Thatta all experienced notable increases in mangrove cover during this period.

Pakistan’s mangroves extend along a 1,050 km coastline shared between Sindh (350 km) and Balochistan (700 km). The Indus Delta recognized as the world’s fifth largest mangrove system and the most extensive dry-climate mangrove forest hosts 97% of the country’s mangrove area (Abbas et al., 2012). The remaining 3% is scattered in smaller patches along the Balochistan coastline. Mangrove restoration provides significant ecological and economic benefits; ecosystem services from just one hectare of mangroves are valued between USD 33,000 and 57,000 annually (Ahmed et al., 2025). Beyond their economic value, mangroves offer critical functions such as shoreline stabilization, carbon sequestration, primary productivity, and nursery habitats for marine species.

The expansion of mangrove cover from 50,973.39 ha in 1990 to 101,446.64 ha in 2023 reflects the positive influence of large scale initiatives like the Green Pakistan Project, which helped counter past degradation caused by reduced freshwater inflow, pollution, and unsustainable harvesting (Saeed, 2024). However, several pressures continue to threaten mangrove health. Altered hydrology due to upstream water management and sea-level rise linked to climate change are among the most significant. Additional factors including rapid urbanization, increased salinity, and declining water quality further exacerbate stress on these ecosystems by amplifying salinity levels and limiting freshwater availability (Asbridge et al., 2015).

Changes in landscape metrics

The evolution of Pakistan’s mangrove patches over the past three decades shows clear signs of fragmentation and changing connectivity, reflecting broader patterns observed across regional coastal ecosystems. Landscape metrics from 1990 to 2023 highlight significant shifts in mangrove structure and composition. A leftward-shifting trend line indicates that overall mangrove area has nearly doubled during this period, with continuous growth in total area (TA), signaling a long-term expansion of mangrove coverage.

Patch dynamics are the key indicators of ecological stability which reveal important changes. The decline in the number of patches (NP) and patch density (PD) suggests reduced fragmentation, likely due to smaller patches merging into larger, more consolidated forest units. Although patch density declined slightly, indicating fewer patches per unit area, the remaining patches appear more tightly grouped, reflecting ongoing landscape reorganization. The increase in the Largest Patch Index (LPI) further confirms the expansion of major mangrove stands, even as the total number of patches decreased.

Other structural indicators point to a simplification of patch shapes, as reflected by the reduction in the Landscape Shape Index (LSI). While simpler patch shapes may limit edge habitats that support diverse species, the significant increase in mean patch size (Area_MN) suggests that mangrove patches are becoming larger and potentially more resilient. Larger patches can support richer biodiversity and enhance ecosystem functioning, reinforcing their role in coastal protection and environmental stability (Ahmed et al., 2025).

The aggregation index (AI) increased steadily from 1990 to 2023, indicating that mangrove patches have become more clustered rather than widely dispersed. This increased clustering, supported by the decline in Euclidean nearest neighbor distance (ENN_MN), can facilitate ecological processes such as nutrient exchange, species movement, and genetic flow (Basnet et al., 2013). Despite these structural changes, overall connectivity remained relatively stable, as shown by minimal variation in the patch cohesion index (COHESION). This stability suggests that the physical connectedness of the mangrove network has been largely maintained across the study period. Similarly, the division index showed only slight decreases, reflecting a modest trend toward reduced fragmentation.

Extensive restoration efforts in the Indus Delta aligned with the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) have been central to these positive changes. Governmental and non-governmental reforestation initiatives, combined with natural sediment deposition, have contributed to mangrove expansion. Unlike regions where increased sedimentation has caused degradation and fragmentation, such as parts of Iran (Guo et al., 2024), sediment accretion in the Indus Delta appears to have supported new mangrove colonization (Li et al., 2024). These contrasting outcomes underscore the importance of local geomorphological conditions in shaping mangrove resilience and recovery.

Influencing factors of mangrove patch changes: man-made and natural drivers

Mangroves in Pakistan particularly within the Indus Delta have shown remarkable recovery, nearly doubling in extent from about 50,973 ha in 1990 to 101,446 ha in 2023. This resurgence is largely attributed to the resilience of Avicennia marina, a dominant species well adapted to saline, arid conditions, along with extensive reforestation and conservation initiatives that recognized the ecological and socioeconomic value of these forests. Despite this progress, both natural and human-induced threats continue to challenge the stability and long-term recovery of these ecosystems.

Climate change remains a major natural pressure, intensifying sea level rise, storm activity, and precipitation variability all of which disrupt the delicate balance of salinity and freshwater critical for mangrove health (Asbridge et al., 2015). Severe cyclonic events, such as Cyclone 2A (1999), Cyclone Phet (2010), and Biparjoy (2023), have repeatedly caused large-scale inundation, flooding, and destruction of mangrove stands (Sunkur et al., 2023). These events are especially damaging to Rhizophora stands in the southern delta, resulting in uprooting, defoliation, and coastline erosion, and often delaying natural regeneration and reforestation efforts.

Anthropogenic pressures have further exacerbated these vulnerabilities. Rapid urbanization, industrial expansion, agricultural encroachment, and overexploitation for fuelwood, fodder, and aquaculture have contributed to habitat loss and degradation (Kumari & Pathak, 2023; Ofori et al., 2023). Agricultural runoff carrying pesticides and fertilizers alters soil and water chemistry, harming mangrove health and biodiversity (Emmerson et al., 2016). Diversion of freshwater flows has intensified salinity stress, placing additional pressure on mangrove resilience.

Despite these challenges, Pakistan has made substantial strides in mangrove conservation through reforestation programs, community participation, and strengthened policy frameworks (Gilani et al., 2021). Mangroves not only protect coastlines from erosion and storm surges but also support diverse wildlife, sequester carbon, and sustain local livelihoods. Ensuring a balance between economic development and ecosystem protection is critical for long-term climate adaptation and coastal resilience (Choudhary et al., 2024). Moreover, the influence of cyclonic disturbances seen in suppressed or slowed patch expansion during certain years (e.g., 2000) highlights the need for restoration strategies that integrate storm resilience and post-disturbance recovery planning (Qureshi, 1993). Strengthening efforts to mitigate human pressures and build ecosystem resilience remains essential for safeguarding the future of mangroves in the Indus Delta.

Recommendations for mangrove conservation and restoration in Pakistan

Environmental and human-induced pressures continue to threaten Pakistan’s mangrove ecosystems, complicating efforts to conserve and restore them (Numbere, 2023). Key challenges include reduced freshwater flow from the Indus River. Climate change further intensifies these threats through sea-level rise and more frequent extreme weather events (Gilman et al., 2008). Limited public awareness also hampers effective policy enforcement. Protecting and restoring mangroves therefore requires sustainable management practices, community participation, and strong governance. In the Indus Delta, mangroves fall under the authority of three major institutions, the Sindh Forest Department, the Port Qasim Authority, and the Sindh Board of Revenue, which collectively oversee nearly 600,000 hectares, most of which are designated as “protected forests” (World Bank, 2021). However, achieving long-term sustainability also depends on community cooperation, particularly in areas labeled as “government wasteland,” where conservation enforcement tends to be weaker. Strengthening coordination among agencies and expanding protected areas remain critical steps for effective mangrove management.

Pakistan’s Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP), launched in 2019, serves as a major example of national-scale restoration. Supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the initiative aims to plant ten billion trees primarily mangroves by 2023. By mid-2021, it had already planted one billion trees, signaling encouraging progress (UNEP, 2024). Beyond aiding ecological recovery, the program promotes biodiversity conservation, creates green employment opportunities, and underscores Pakistan’s commitment to climate resilience and global environmental goals.

Sustainable mangrove conservation hinges on early and inclusive planning. Active local community involvement ensures long-term stewardship, while strong national policies such as those outlined in the National Adaptation Plan provide the legal support needed for protection. Ongoing research and monitoring are essential for guiding restoration and assessing outcomes. Best practices, including planting native species and adopting environmentally responsible coastal development, further enhance restoration success. Integrating economic tools such as carbon credit mechanisms can offer financial incentives to support conservation. These combined efforts position Pakistan to advance mangrove restoration and safeguard these critical ecosystems for future generations.

Valuable lessons can also be drawn from countries with similar ecological conditions. In Indonesia, community-based management and the integration of indigenous knowledge into environmental policy have significantly improved restoration outcomes (Yu et al., 2023). Adopting similar approaches especially those that emphasize community engagement and economic incentives like payments for ecosystem services could strengthen Pakistan’s ongoing initiatives, including the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program (Sasmito et al., 2023; United Nations Environment Program, 2024).

Conclusion

Over the last three decades, Pakistan’s mangrove forests particularly within the Indus Delta have demonstrated a rare and encouraging story of ecological recovery amid mounting environmental pressures. The near doubling of mangrove cover from 1990 to 2023 reflects the combined impact of large-scale restoration initiatives, the natural resilience of Avicennia marina, and strengthened policy attention toward ecosystem protection. Improvements in landscape structure, including larger patch sizes, increased aggregation, and sustained connectivity, indicate growing ecological stability and enhanced capacity for coastal protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration.

Nevertheless, this recovery remains fragile. Climate change–driven sea-level rise, intensifying cyclones, reduced freshwater inflows, urban encroachment, and pollution continue to threaten long-term resilience. The findings clearly show that restoration gains can be reversed without sustained governance, scientific monitoring, and community stewardship. National efforts such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Program, alignment with the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, and community-based initiatives provide a strong foundation, but their success depends on institutional coordination, enforcement, and long-term financing mechanisms.

Going forward, mangrove conservation in Pakistan must evolve from short-term plantation targets toward integrated coastal resilience planning that balances ecological protection with livelihoods, climate adaptation, and sustainable development. If managed effectively, the Indus Delta mangroves can remain a global model of large-scale restoration in arid coastal environments and a critical nature-based solution for Pakistan’s climate future.

References: Abbas et al; Ahmed et al; Akçakaya et al; Amjad et al; Asbridge et al; Basnet et al; Bhatti et al; Carugati et al; Choudhary et al; Dabala et al; Emmerson et al; Gilani et al; Gilman et al; Guo et al; Haseeba et al; Hussain; Jia et al; Kumari ;Li et al; Liu et al; Luo et al; Masood et al; Mehmood et al; Mihautiate; Numbere; Ofori et al; Qureshi; Rafique; Saeed; Saoum & Sarkar; Sasmito et al; Sunkur et al; United Nations Environment Program; World Bank.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writers are affiliated with the Drainage and Reclamation Institute of Pakistan (DRIP), Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) and can be reached at nazargul43@gmail.com

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