Pakistan's Path to Agro-Sovereignty

Pakistan stands at a pivotal juncture, endowed with the natural capital to forge a prosperous and sustainable future. With over 30.5 million hectares of cultivable land, representing 47% of the country’s total area, a diverse agro-climatic range spanning from temperate northern highlands to tropical coastal belts, and one of the world’s largest contiguous irrigation networks fed by the Indus Basin, the nation possesses the ecological foundation for agricultural excellence (World Bank, 2023). Agriculture remains the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing 24% to GDP, employing 38% of the labour force, and serving as the primary livelihood source for most rural households (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2023–24). From cotton, wheat, and rice to a vast array of horticultural products and livestock, the country has the capacity to emerge as a major global food supplier.

Yet, this potential remains vastly underexploited. Although the sector’s value expanded from $56 billion in 2019 to an estimated $89.52 billion in 2024, Pakistan’s global agricultural ranking slipped from 7th to 10th, reflecting a widening performance gap as competitor nations modernize more rapidly (FAO, 2024; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics). This paradox highlights deep structural shortcomings low productivity, weak research-to-farm linkages, inefficient water use, fragmented markets, outdated farming practices, and excessive dependence on external inputs and loans. These weaknesses perpetuate a cycle of vulnerability, where Pakistan remains prone to food inflation, import pressures, and climate shocks.

To break this cycle and unlock true national strength, Pakistan must shift toward Agro-Sovereignty, a model in which agriculture becomes the engine of economic power, food self-sufficiency, and export-driven growth. The path forward demands bold transformation built on agri-financial independence, robust research and innovation, technological modernization, and mass-scale farmer education. Only through such systemic change can Pakistan turn its natural advantages into enduring economic sovereignty and emerge as a leading agricultural nation in the decades ahead.

Opportunities for an Agro-Sovereign Pakistan

Pakistan today stands at a rare moment in its agricultural and economic trajectory, where global market shifts, domestic innovation, and institutional reforms are converging to create opportunities for true Agro-Sovereignty. Changing trade patterns have opened new avenues for agricultural exports. Historically, the United States has applied relatively lower average tariff rates on Pakistani products approximately 19%, compared to 30% on Chinese goods and 50% on Indian goods (World Trade Organization, 2023). This differential creates an export window that Pakistan can leverage to expand its agricultural footprint in the U.S. market. At the same time, access to the European Union through the GSP+ framework provides tariff-free entry for a wide range of agricultural and textile products, while high-income Gulf markets continue to demand premium halal food, dairy, fruits, and meats (European Commission, 2024). With deliberate branding, stronger sanitary and phytosanitary compliance, and export-oriented value addition, Pakistan can secure long-term trade advantages.

Domestically, technological transformation is already underway. Pakistan’s agri-tech landscape now includes more than 87 active startups, signaling a wave of market-driven modernization (Karachi School of Business, 2023). Digital platforms such as Bazaar and Dastgir are enabling over 500,000 farmers to bypass exploitative intermediaries, improving farm-gate earnings by nearly 25%. Meanwhile, solar-powered cold-chain solutions introduced by companies like Cool Crop are drastically reducing post-harvest losses historically as high as 40% for fruits and vegetables (UNDP, 2023). These innovations are supported by emerging fintech solutions that are widening access to credit, crop insurance, and digital payments, allowing smallholders to invest in quality inputs and shock-proof their livelihoods.

Pakistan’s diverse agro-ecology further expands opportunity through diversification into high-value crops and advanced livestock systems. Quinoa, saffron, olives, berries, and avocados can target fast-growing niche markets worldwide, while the livestock industry anchored by 225 million animals and valued at over PKR 5.5 trillion possesses untapped export potential (MNFSR, 2023). Introducing improved breeds, scientific feed systems, and a shift from raw exports to processed halal products can multiply earnings and create rural agro-industries.

Policy momentum is also moving in the right direction. The State Bank of Pakistan’s agricultural financing reforms such as the Credit Guarantee Scheme, Crop and Livestock Insurance programs, and the Electronic Warehouse Receipt system are reducing risk and injecting liquidity into rural markets. Mechanization support, including Rs. 31.6 billion financed for modern equipment, is enhancing farm productivity and lowering labor inefficiencies (SBP, 2023).

Internal and External Impact of Advancing Toward Agro-Sovereignty

The shift toward agro-industrialization has the potential to transform Pakistan’s internal socio-economic landscape by generating employment, slowing rural-to-urban migration, and creating modern value-chain opportunities in processing, logistics, packaging, and marketing. By equipping youth with subsidized modern machinery, skill development, and credit guarantees, the rural economy can be revitalized, empowering local communities and reducing pressure on already overburdened urban centers. This transformation also expands the national tax base through formalization and commercialization. The Federal Board of Revenue estimates that agriculture could yield up to Rs. 300 billion annually by broadening direct taxation, property-based agricultural levies, and commercial duties (FBR, 2024). At the same time, climate-smart agricultural practices will be essential to ensure sustainability, particularly in a country with the second-highest deforestation rate in Asia (WWF, 2023). Efforts such as roadside orchards can function as carbon sinks while supporting biodiversity and curbing environmental degradation, ultimately strengthening long-term productivity.

Externally, agricultural transformation holds equal strategic value. Pakistan is already the world’s fourth-largest exporter of rice and a leading producer of leather and textile goods, with agriculture-derived textiles constituting nearly 60% of total exports (TDAP, 2023). By moving beyond raw commodities and embracing value-addition, Pakistan can significantly boost its export earnings and reinforce its global economic stature. This aligns with the aspirations of initiatives like “URAAN Pakistan,” which envisions a trillion-dollar participation in the world economy by 2035. A stronger agricultural base also increases resilience to global shocks. Unlike industries dependent on volatile international financial systems or fuel markets, agriculture remains comparatively stable. Its resilience was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic and in conflict-affected regions such as Ethiopia’s Tigray, where land remained under cultivation despite crisis conditions (NASA Harvest, 2022).

Moreover, Pakistan’s diverse agro-ecological terrain offers an attractive platform for foreign investment and research partnerships. International agencies such as ACIAR are already prioritizing collaboration in dairy, horticulture, and water management (ACIAR, 2023). CSR initiatives, like those by Pakistan Organic Farms, demonstrate how certification and capacity-building can integrate smallholders into premium global chains. In addition, the growing global agritourism market projected to reach $141 billion by 2030 presents an opportunity to reshape Pakistan’s international image (Allied Market Research, 2022). By showcasing its orchards, valleys, farms, and rural culture, Pakistan can reposition itself as a destination of peace, nature, and heritage, while generating new streams of rural income. Through these combined internal and external impacts, agro-sovereignty can serve as a cornerstone for national prosperity.

Policies and Strategic Suggestions for an Agro-Sovereign Future

Achieving agro-sovereignty in Pakistan requires a bold, coordinated, and future-focused policy framework that addresses institutional fragmentation, market volatility, and technological stagnation. A foundational step is the creation of a Pakistan National Agricultural Coordination System (PNACS), a centralized federal–provincial platform designed to harmonize agricultural governance. By integrating policy planning, data sharing, and national production targets, PNACS would provide a unified direction for the sector. Its mandate would include market forecasting to guide crop choices, prevent avoidable gluts and shortages, and regulate input distribution to curb exploitation by middlemen who manipulate prices and inflame inflation.

To complement this, a National Crop Allocation and Rotation Plan (NCARP) would institutionalize scientific crop planning across agro-ecological zones. By aligning crop selection with soil health, climate suitability, and evolving market demand, NCARP would help stabilize farmer incomes while mandating rotation cycles that naturally break pest chains, reduce chemical dependency, and restore fertility. Tailored support structures for small, medium, and large farms would ensure equity in subsidy allocation and technology access.

Structural reforms must also address governance distortions. Agricultural policymaking has long been influenced by industrial lobbies, commodity traders, and politically connected cartels. A clear separation between business interests and public office is essential to end rent-seeking behavior and prioritize food security, farmer welfare, and transparent market operations.

Simultaneously, Pakistan must pivot toward value addition rather than remaining a bulk commodity exporter. Investing in processing zones, branding, packaging, and certification (organic, Halal, and HACCP-compliant) would unlock premium global markets and dramatically increase export revenues. Parallel to this, smart agricultural innovations offer transformative potential. Techniques such as vertical farming can multiply yields in urban centers while conserving land and water, and aquaponics present a closed-loop model ideal for water-scarce regions. Emerging concepts like liquid trees and zero-acreage farming can improve urban sustainability, enhance local food availability, and support climate resilience.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s journey toward Agro-Sovereignty is both an economic necessity and a historic opportunity. With fertile land, diverse climates, and a strategic geographic position, the country possesses the natural advantages required to become an agricultural powerhouse. However, for decades, structural inefficiencies, fragmented governance, and outdated practices have constrained growth, leaving the nation vulnerable to food insecurity, import dependence, and climate stress. The evidence is clear: incremental reforms are no longer sufficient. What Pakistan needs is a bold transformation anchored in scientific planning, technological modernization, value-added production, and empowered farming communities.

By adopting coordinated national policies, strengthening research-to-farm linkages, expanding agri-finance, and incentivizing innovation, Pakistan can unlock a new era of rural prosperity, job creation, and global competitiveness. Export-oriented value chains, climate-smart production systems, and transparent market mechanisms will be pivotal in moving the country beyond subsistence toward sovereignty. If pursued with political will, institutional integrity, and long-term vision, Agro-Sovereignty can serve as the cornerstone of national resilience—reducing poverty, stabilizing the economy, and elevating Pakistan’s position in global food systems. The path forward is clear: agriculture must not only feed the nation but lead it. With the right choices today, Pakistan can emerge as a confident, food-secure, and globally influential agricultural state in the decades to come.

References: ACIAR; Allied Market Research; European Commission; FAO; FBR; Karachi School of Business; Ministry of National Food Security & Research; NASA Harvest; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; Regonesi; Sarfraz; SBP; TDAP; UNDP; World Bank; WTO; WWF.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization. 

The writers are affiliated with the Department of Agriculture & Agribusiness Management, University of Karachi, Pakistan and can be reached at shah.aziz@uok.edu.pk

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