Rethinking Pakistan's Edible Oil Dependence

Pakistan's reliance on imported edible oil highlights the urgent need for reformed agricultural strategies. Climate change and rising production costs threaten farm profitability, necessitating integrated, science-based solutions rather than isolated policy responses.

SPOTLIGHT

Dr Nazar Gul & Engr Uroosa Memon

8/3/2026

Every day, millions of Pakistani households prepare meals using cooking oil, rarely realizing that most of what reaches their kitchens originates thousands of kilometers away. Pakistan imports nearly 85% of its edible oil requirements, making the country one of the world's largest edible oil importers. This heavy dependence costs the national economy more than US$4 billion annually, placing a significant burden on foreign exchange reserves while exposing the country's food system to global market uncertainties. What appears to be an ordinary household commodity has therefore become one of Pakistan's most important food security challenges.

The scale of this dependence is striking. In 2024 alone, Pakistan imported approximately 860,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia, representing a substantial increase over previous years. Total edible oil imports, including palm oil and other vegetable oils, continue to rise as domestic consumption expands. Current estimates suggest that Pakistan will require nearly 4 million tonnes of palm oil in 2025, with an import bill approaching US$3.5-4.0 billion. To appreciate the magnitude of this expenditure, it is worth noting that Pakistan's total agricultural exports including rice, sesame, fruits, vegetables, meat, and other commodities generate around US$8 billion annually. In other words, nearly half of the country's agricultural export earnings are effectively spent on importing edible oils.

This dependence extends beyond economics and represents a strategic vulnerability. Global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, export restrictions, fluctuating freight costs, and climate-related production shocks in major producing countries can rapidly increase international edible oil prices and threaten import availability. For a country where agriculture contributes nearly 24% of GDP, employs approximately 37% of the labor force, and supports millions of rural households, relying so heavily on imported edible oil presents a significant food security risk.

Ironically, Pakistan possesses nearly 22 million hectares of cultivable land, including about 18 million hectares of irrigated farmland, providing considerable potential for domestic oilseed production. However, climate change, declining cotton cultivation, low productivity of oilseed crops, limited investment in research, and inadequate policy support have steadily widened the gap between domestic production and consumption. Cotton-seed production, once a major source of edible oil, has declined sharply as farmers increasingly replace cotton with sugarcane and maize in response to changing climatic conditions and market incentives. Although sunflower and canola cultivation has expanded, together they satisfy only about 15% of national edible oil demand. With rapid population growth, rising incomes, urbanization, and increasing consumption by households, restaurants, and the food processing industry, Pakistan's edible oil deficit is expected to widen further unless decisive investments are made to strengthen domestic oilseed production and reduce long-term dependence on imports.

Climate Change and the Rising Burden of Livestock Diseases in Pakistan

In Pakistan, the visible face of climate change is often portrayed through dramatic events such as glacial melt, erratic monsoon rainfall, and devastating floods. While these shocks capture public and policy attention, a quieter yet more persistent crisis is unfolding within the livestock sector. This hidden dimension of climate change is steadily eroding rural livelihoods, weakening food systems, and posing emerging risks to public health. The increasing incidence and spread of livestock diseases, which are caused by changing temperature regimes, humidity patterns, and ecological disruptions, represent a critical but under-recognized challenge.

Livestock remains the backbone of Pakistan’s rural economy, contributing approximately 60.6 percent to the agriculture sector and around 14 percent to national GDP, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2022–23. More than 8 million rural households depend on livestock for income, nutrition, and financial resilience. Cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats serve as vital assets, providing milk, meat, draft power, and a buffer against economic shocks. However, the sustainability of this sector is increasingly threatened by climate-induced stressors.

Rising temperatures are intensifying heat stress in animals, reducing feed intake, fertility, and milk production. At the same time, changing rainfall patterns and increased humidity are creating favorable conditions for the proliferation of disease vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes, and flies. These vectors facilitate the spread of infections including foot-and-mouth disease, hemorrhagic septicemia, and parasitic infestations. Moreover, prolonged droughts and floods weaken animal immunity by limiting access to quality feed and clean water, further increasing disease susceptibility.

As highlighted by recent studies, climate change is effectively reshaping the epidemiology of livestock diseases in Pakistan. Without timely adaptation measures, this evolving threat could significantly undermine rural incomes, disrupt food supply chains, and intensify poverty in already vulnerable communities.

Science, Innovation, and Farmer-Centered Development

Transforming Pakistan's coastal belt into a productive and sustainable oil palm production zone requires far more than introducing a new crop. It demands a comprehensive scientific strategy that combines plant breeding, climate adaptation, agronomic innovation, and strong institutional support. Oil palm is a highly productive crop, but its successful cultivation depends on matching the right genetic material with local environmental conditions. Imported germplasm from Southeast Asia and Latin America has demonstrated excellent performance in humid tropical climates; however, these varieties must first adapt to Pakistan's distinct coastal ecosystem, characterized by high temperatures, irregular rainfall, saline soils, and limited freshwater availability.

Scientific research has consistently shown that oil palm varieties perform differently under varying environmental conditions. High-yielding cultivars developed in Malaysia or Indonesia may produce exceptional results under abundant rainfall but can suffer substantial reductions in growth, fruit bunch production, and oil yield when exposed to drought or water stress. This strong interaction between plant genetics and environmental conditions highlights the importance of genotype-by-environment evaluation. Researchers must systematically screen diverse germplasm collections under Pakistan's coastal conditions to identify varieties capable of maintaining productivity despite water scarcity. Modern breeding programs should combine conventional selection with molecular breeding techniques to accelerate the development of drought-tolerant and climate-resilient cultivars.

Heat stress represents an equally significant challenge. In many parts of Sindh and Balochistan, summer temperatures frequently exceed 45°C, far above the optimum range for oil palm growth. Excessive heat reduces photosynthesis, disrupts flowering, lowers fruit set, decreases oil accumulation, and can even cause permanent damage to young palms. Developing heat-tolerant varieties therefore becomes a strategic priority. Scientists need to identify parental lines possessing desirable physiological traits such as improved water-use efficiency, deeper root systems, efficient stomatal regulation, and enhanced tolerance to oxidative stress and incorporate these characteristics into breeding programs. Long-term multi-location trials across Pakistan's coastal districts will be essential to identify stable, high-performing cultivars capable of withstanding future climate variability.

Salinity presents another major obstacle. Large areas of Pakistan's coastal belt suffer from saline soils and brackish groundwater, conditions that limit nutrient uptake and suppress plant growth. Although improved irrigation management, mulching, soil amendments, and drainage systems can reduce salt stress, these measures alone are insufficient for long-term sustainability. The identification and breeding of salt-tolerant palm oil varieties will therefore be critical. Advances in plant physiology and genomics now provide opportunities to identify genes associated with salinity tolerance, allowing breeders to develop cultivars better suited to Pakistan's coastal environments.

Scientific innovation alone, however, cannot guarantee success. The development of a complete and efficient value chain is equally important. Oil palm is a processing-intensive crop whose fruits must be milled within a short period after harvest to preserve oil quality. Establishing modern crushing mills, extraction facilities, refineries, storage infrastructure, transportation networks, and marketing systems will therefore be essential. Without adequate downstream processing capacity, farmers would struggle to obtain profitable returns regardless of production levels.

Farmer participation will depend heavily on appropriate financial incentives during the establishment phase. Oil palm requires approximately three years before commercial harvesting begins, creating a significant income gap for resource-constrained farmers. Government support through subsidized seedlings, concessional credit, irrigation assistance, crop insurance, and guaranteed purchase agreements can substantially reduce investment risks. During the juvenile period, intercropping with short-duration crops such as bananas, papayas, vegetables, legumes, or fodder crops can generate interim income while improving land-use efficiency and enhancing household food security.

Strong public-private partnerships will ultimately determine the long-term viability of Pakistan's oil palm industry. Government research institutions, universities, private edible oil companies, financial institutions, and farmer organizations must collaborate to establish acclimatized nurseries, support adaptive research, expand extension services, and develop certified planting material. Private processors can invest in milling facilities, provide technical assistance, facilitate contract farming arrangements, and even support renewable energy solutions such as solar-powered irrigation systems. Such integrated partnerships reduce investment risks, strengthen farmer confidence, improve productivity, and create sustainable value chains. By combining scientific innovation with supportive policies, modern infrastructure, and inclusive institutional collaboration, Pakistan can successfully establish a climate-resilient oil palm industry that contributes to reducing edible oil imports, strengthening rural livelihoods, generating employment, and enhancing long-term national food security.

Building a Sustainable Future for Pakistan's Oil Palm Industry

The experiences of leading palm oil producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia demonstrate that oil palm can become a powerful driver of economic growth, rural employment, and national food security. These countries transformed oil palm into a globally competitive industry through sustained investments in research, improved planting materials, farmer training, processing infrastructure, and supportive public policies. However, their experience also highlights important environmental lessons. Large-scale plantation expansion has, in some areas, contributed to deforestation, biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and degradation of sensitive ecosystems. Pakistan has the advantage of learning from these experiences and pursuing a more sustainable development pathway from the outset.

Oil palm expansion in Pakistan should be confined to suitable coastal lands without disturbing ecologically important mangrove forests or other natural habitats. Sustainable cultivation practices including minimum land disturbance, integrated pest management, organic residue recycling, and careful nutrient management should be promoted to maintain soil health and protect biodiversity. Given the water scarcity of Pakistan's coastal belt, efficient irrigation technologies such as drip irrigation, combined with rainwater harvesting, treated wastewater reuse where feasible, and precision water management, should become integral components of oil palm production systems.

Developing a successful domestic palm oil industry will require long-term commitment extending far beyond plantation establishment. Continued investment in adaptive research, germplasm evaluation, biotechnology, and climate-resilient breeding programs is essential for developing varieties capable of withstanding Pakistan's high temperatures, drought, and saline soils. Collaboration with internationally recognized research institutions in Malaysia, Indonesia, Colombia, and other palm-producing countries can accelerate technology transfer, capacity building, and varietal improvement.

Equally important is the creation of an integrated value chain. Modern nurseries, processing mills, refineries, storage facilities, transportation networks, and efficient marketing systems must be developed alongside plantations. Pilot and micro-trials across suitable agroecological zones should continue to identify high-performing varieties and refine best management practices before commercial-scale expansion. Public-private partnerships can play a pivotal role by providing certified seedlings, extension services, concessional financing, crop insurance, and guaranteed procurement arrangements that reduce investment risks for farmers.

The potential benefits are substantial. Expanding domestic palm oil production could significantly reduce Pakistan's multibillion-dollar edible oil import bill, strengthen foreign exchange reserves, generate employment opportunities in coastal regions, stimulate agro-industrial development, and improve national food security. Nevertheless, realizing these gains requires treating oil palm not merely as an agricultural crop but as a strategic national investment. With sound scientific research, environmentally responsible policies, sustained institutional support, and active participation from both the public and private sectors, Pakistan has an opportunity to establish a resilient and sustainable oil palm industry that contributes meaningfully to long-term economic growth and food security.

Conclusion

Pakistan's growing dependence on imported edible oil underscores the urgent need to rethink national agricultural and food security strategies. At the same time, climate change is placing unprecedented pressure on the livestock sector through rising disease incidence, while increasing energy price volatility continues to raise production costs and threaten farm profitability. These interconnected challenges demand integrated, science-based solutions rather than isolated policy responses. The emerging potential for climate-resilient oil palm cultivation in Pakistan's coastal belt offers one promising avenue to reduce import dependence, strengthen rural livelihoods, and improve foreign exchange savings. However, success will depend on sustained investment in research, climate-adapted germplasm, environmentally responsible production practices, efficient value chains, and strong public-private partnerships. Equally important are measures to improve livestock health, enhance renewable energy adoption in agriculture, and strengthen institutional support for farmers. By aligning innovation, sustainability, and sound policy, Pakistan can transform these challenges into opportunities, building a more resilient agricultural sector that supports food security, rural prosperity, and long-term economic stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Drainage and Reclamation Institute of Pakistan (DRIP), Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) and and GM Projects South, WAPDA, Hyderabad, respectively and can be reached at nazargul43@gmail.com

Rethinking Pakistan's Edible Oil Dependence

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