Reviving Pakistan’s Citrus Economy with Climate-Smart Solutions

The kinnow industry in Pakistan stands at a decisive crossroads, with its traditional hub in Sargodha losing ground. Once celebrated as the “citrus capital” of the country, Sargodha’s orchards are shrinking as farmers shift toward safer and more predictable crops such as wheat, fodder, or even sugarcane. The reasons are clear: rising production costs, falling profitability, and climate-induced risks have made kinnow cultivation increasingly unviable (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2023–24).

Climatic stressors represent the most pressing challenge. Heatwaves coinciding with the flowering stage reduce fruit set, while irregular rainfall and recurring droughts compromise both fruit size and juice content. The delicate sugar-to-acid ratio that determines taste and export quality has also been disrupted, leaving Pakistani kinnow less competitive in global markets (Jain et al., 2025). At the same time, warmer winters, once rare, have intensified pest and disease outbreaks. Citrus Greening Disease (Huanglongbing or HLB), caused by a bacterial pathogen and transmitted by psyllid insects, has now reached alarming levels, infecting an estimated 30–40% of trees in some of the core growing regions. In addition, fruit fly infestations have become widespread, not only reducing yields but also directly undermining export eligibility, as international buyers impose zero-tolerance policies for fruit fly presence (Iqbal et al., 2024).

These interlinked pressures have curtailed access to lucrative export destinations such as the European Union, which enforce strict Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards. As a result, Pakistan has been forced to rely heavily on lower-value markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. This shift has limited foreign exchange earnings and eroded farmer incentives to sustain kinnow production. Without urgent interventions ranging from integrated pest management and disease-resistant varieties to climate-smart practices, the decline of the kinnow industry may accelerate, threatening both rural livelihoods and the country’s export potential (World Bank, 2023).

Key Challenges

The kinnow industry in Pakistan faces a series of interconnected and systemic challenges that are eroding its long-term sustainability and export competitiveness. At the forefront is orchard decline, as farmers across the traditional citrus belt, particularly in Sargodha, are increasingly abandoning kinnow cultivation. This shift is largely driven by climate-induced stress, higher production costs, and declining profitability, which make alternative crops like wheat and fodder more attractive. The shrinking orchard base poses a serious threat to the sector’s future production capacity.

Equally concerning is the degradation in yield and fruit quality. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and persistent water shortages have collectively undermined both productivity and marketable quality. The sugar-acid balance, fruit size, and juice content, all critical for consumer preference and export standards, are adversely affected. Compounding this, post-harvest losses remain high, with an estimated 25–30% of fruit lost annually due to inadequate handling, lack of cold storage, and outdated transportation systems (FAO, 2023).

Pest and disease epidemics further intensify the crisis. Citrus Greening (HLB), one of the most destructive citrus diseases globally, has already infected a significant proportion of orchards, while fruit flies remain a persistent problem that undermines export eligibility. Left unmanaged, these biotic threats risk causing widespread orchard to decline and eventual collapse.

Water scarcity and soil salinization add another layer of complexity. The widespread reliance on flood irrigation, in an era of increasing water shortages, not only wastes resources but also worsens soil salinity. These conditions weaken trees, reduce productivity, and, in many cases, force farmers to abandon orchards altogether (Howlader et al., 2024).

Finally, the erosion of export competitiveness is perhaps the most visible symptom of these challenges. With fruit quality falling short of international Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards, Pakistan has lost ground in high-value markets like the EU, leading to declining export volumes and revenues. Unless systemic reforms are undertaken, the sector risks further marginalization in global citrus trade.

Policy Recommendations

Reviving the kinnow industry in Pakistan requires a holistic and coordinated approach that addresses both immediate constraints and long-term structural challenges. A priority is orchard revitalization in Sargodha Division, the country’s core kinnow belt. Many orchards are old, unproductive, and highly vulnerable to disease. A targeted Citrus Rejuvenation Program should be launched, providing subsidies for the removal and replanting of aging trees with certified, HLB-free, and climate-resilient rootstocks. Complementary practices such as crop rotation and intercropping with legumes can restore soil fertility while generating interim income for farmers during the replanting phase.

Equally critical is climate-smart water management. With water scarcity intensifying, the widespread adoption of high-efficiency irrigation systems (HEIS), including drip and sprinkler systems, is vital. These technologies can cut water use by 40–60% while boosting yields (UN-Water, 2023). Additional measures such as mulching, cover cropping, and rainwater harvesting structures should be incentivized to conserve soil moisture, reduce heat stress, and enhance climate resilience at the farm level.

Combating biotic stress requires robust integrated pest and disease management (IPM). A real-time Citrus Disease Surveillance and Alert System across Punjab would enable early detection of HLB outbreaks. Simultaneously, IPM practices for fruit fly control, male annihilation, protein baiting, orchard sanitation, and biological control, must be scaled up. Training farmers in safe, targeted pesticide use will also ensure sustainability.

Strengthening the industry’s competitiveness demands export-oriented infrastructure and compliance. Investments in modern packhouses, cold storage units, and logistics facilities in Sargodha can reduce post-harvest losses, currently estimated at 25–30%. Introducing a "Climate-Resilient Kinnow" certification protocol will reassure international buyers, while building exporter capacity to comply with EU cold treatment protocols can help Pakistan regain access to high-value markets.

Finally, enhancing resilience requires risk management and financial inclusion. Index-based crop insurance schemes tailored to citrus growers should be introduced, with payouts linked to weather parameters such as temperature extremes or rainfall deficits. A Citrus Resilience Fund, co-financed by the public and private sectors, can provide concessional loans for smallholders to adopt climate-smart technologies. Coupled with this, institutional strengthening and research are essential. Establishing a Citrus Research & Innovation Hub at the University of Sargodha will accelerate the development of heat- and disease-resistant varieties, while farmer-producer organizations (FPOs) and cooperatives can boost bargaining power, market access, and technology adoption.

Conclusion

The future of Pakistan’s kinnow industry hinges on how effectively the country responds to the intersecting challenges of climate change, pest and disease outbreaks, and declining export competitiveness. Once a symbol of prosperity in Sargodha, kinnow cultivation now faces an existential threat as orchards shrink, yields decline, and farmers lose faith in citrus as a profitable enterprise. Left unchecked, this decline will not only undermine rural livelihoods but also weaken Pakistan’s agricultural exports and its ability to earn much-needed foreign exchange.

Yet, this trajectory is not irreversible. The proposed set of reforms, orchard rejuvenation, climate-smart irrigation, integrated pest and disease management, modernized infrastructure, and inclusive financial mechanisms, offers a clear roadmap for revival. By investing in resilient rootstocks, sustainable water use, and farmer capacity-building, Pakistan can restore productivity and competitiveness. Equally important is regaining access to high-value markets through compliance with international quality and SPS standards.

The kinnow industry is more than a fruit sector; it is a cornerstone of rural economies, a source of employment, and a symbol of Pakistan’s agricultural identity. With timely interventions and coordinated policy action, kinnow can once again thrive as a driver of resilience, profitability, and global recognition.

References: FAO; Howlader et al; Iqbal et al; Jain et al; PBS; GOP; SBP; TDAP; UN-Water; World Bank.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the College of Agriculture, University of Sargodha, Sargodha, Pakistan and can be reached at ather.nadeem@uos.edu.pk

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