Tomatoes' Minimal Role in Türkiye's Inflation

Tomatoes hold a symbolic place in Türkiye’s food culture, yet their role in shaping national inflation is often overstated. According to TÜİK (2024), tomatoes account for just 0.87% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, a fraction too small to independently cause significant changes in the headline inflation rate. This means that while seasonal price spikes in tomatoes may draw public attention, their overall statistical effect is minimal. Consumer behavior also helps absorb these fluctuations. Data from the TURKSTAT Household Survey (2023) shows that when fresh tomato prices rise sharply, households readily substitute with other vegetables such as peppers or eggplants or shift to processed and canned tomato products. This substitution effect dampens the broader inflationary impact.

The real inflationary pressures in Türkiye stem from other sectors. Processed foods, which carry an 18.2% weight in the CPI basket, along with energy costs and fluctuations in the exchange rate, have a far greater influence on the overall inflation trajectory (CBRT, 2024). Exchange rate movements affect imported inputs such as fertilizers, seeds, and fuel, raising production costs across the agricultural sector.

Another often-overlooked factor is the farmer’s share in the final retail price. For fresh tomatoes, producers receive only 15–20% of the price paid by consumers, compared to 50–60% for processed tomato-based products like paste and sauces (TARIM Dairesi, 2024). The remainder is absorbed by intermediaries, processors, distributors, and retailers, meaning that price volatility in fresh tomatoes has a diluted pass-through to the CPI.

In short, while tomato prices can spark public debate and seasonal concern, Türkiye’s inflation dynamics are driven far more by structural factors in processed food markets, energy pricing, and currency trends than by the humble tomato.

The Tomato-Inflation Myth: Why the Narrative is Flawed

The idea that rising tomato prices significantly drive Türkiye’s inflation is more myth than reality. According to TÜİK (2024), tomatoes represent just 0.87% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, tiny compared to staples like bread and cereals (7.5%), processed meats (4.3%), and oils and fats (3.1%). Even in the extreme case of a 50% price surge, tomatoes would contribute only about 0.43 percentage points to the overall inflation rate, far from being a primary driver.

Consumer behavior further dilutes this impact through the substitution effect. When fresh tomato prices jumped 112% year-on-year in June 2023, Ministry of Agriculture data shows pepper consumption rose 18% as households adjusted their purchasing habits. Türkiye’s position as the world’s 7th largest vegetable producer (FAO, 2024) ensures that a diverse range of alternatives such as eggplants, cucumbers, or canned tomato products remain readily available, cushioning price shocks.

The real drivers of food inflation lie elsewhere, particularly in processed food and input costs. Energy expenses, including electricity and fuel, have risen 32%, sharply increasing food processing costs (TOBB, 2024). Packaging materials have surged, glass by 45% and metal by 28% since 2022 (İSO, 2024), while labor costs have climbed 68% following minimum wage hikes (TÜRK-İŞ, 2024). In tomato paste production, for example, the raw tomatoes themselves account for only 20% of the final price, while energy, packaging, and logistics represent 65% (TARIM Dairesi, 2024).

In essence, while tomato prices may capture headlines and stir seasonal frustration, their actual weight in Türkiye’s inflation story is small. The bigger forces shaping food prices are structural, rooted in energy, packaging, logistics, and labor costs, making the tomato a scapegoat in a far more complex inflation equation.

Why Farmers Are Unfairly Blamed

Public perception often places the blame for high food prices squarely on farmers, but the reality is far more nuanced. In Türkiye’s tomato supply chain, most of the production destined for industrial use, around 85% is secured through contract farming agreements (Aegean Exporters’ Association, 2024). These contracts lock in prices months before harvest, meaning seasonal market swings have minimal impact on the prices supermarkets pay. Major retailers such as Migros and BIM operate on stable cost structures, and their own breakdowns from 2023 show that retail price volatility is often disconnected from what farmers receive.

When prices do spike, climate change and speculation play far larger roles than farm-gate costs. The 2023 drought reduced tomato yields by about 12%, but wholesale prices climbed by 40% while retail prices soared by 90% (TZOB, 2024). Such disproportionate jumps point toward market manipulation and excessive intermediary margins rather than farmer profiteering. Data from TMMOB’s 2023 report reveals that middlemen capture 60–70% of price increases between the farm and the store, capitalizing on climate-related supply concerns to justify outsized markups.

Addressing these distortions requires policy shifts that target structural inefficiencies rather than scapegoating farmers. Regulators must monitor concentrated market power in processed food industries, where just three firms control 72% of Türkiye’s pasta market (Rekabet Kurumu, 2024). Energy costs, which heavily influence food processing expenses, could be capped following the EU’s Food VAT Reduction model to prevent cost inflation from cascading into retail prices.

On the farmer side, direct support is key. Expanding electronic price transparency platforms, like the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) live integration with Borsa İstanbul, would help align farm-gate prices with retail realities. Reducing the number of intermediary layers, an approach that proved effective in Antalya’s 2023 citrus cooperative pilot, could also ensure a fairer distribution of value along the chain.

Finally, building climate resilience is essential. Drip irrigation subsidies currently reach only 23% of Türkiye’s farmland (DSİ, 2024) and should be expanded. Investment in heat-resistant seed research, backed by TÜBİTAK’s ₺850 million agri-tech budget for 2024, will help protect yields from increasingly erratic weather patterns. In short, farmers are not the cause of Türkiye’s food price surgesth, they are often the first victims of systemic market flaws.

Conclusion

The evidence clearly shows that tomatoes are far from the main culprit behind Türkiye’s inflationary pressures. Their tiny 0.87% weight in the CPI basket means that even dramatic price surges have only a marginal statistical effect on the headline inflation rate. Consumer substitution toward alternative vegetables or processed products further dampens their overall impact. Instead, structural factors, such as rising energy costs, packaging price hikes, labor expenses, and concentrated market power in processed food industries, play a far greater role in shaping food inflation.

Farmers, often portrayed as the source of price volatility, are in fact constrained by pre-agreed contract prices, climate-related yield losses, and market intermediaries who capture a disproportionate share of price increases. The real challenge lies in addressing inefficiencies and speculative practices within the supply chain. Targeted policies that improve price transparency, strengthen cooperative marketing, cap critical input costs, and invest in climate-resilient farming technologies would do far more to stabilize food prices than focusing on seasonal fluctuations in tomato costs. By shifting the public debate away from simplistic scapegoats toward deeper structural reforms, Türkiye can build a more resilient, fair, and transparent food economy, one in which both consumers and farmers are protected from avoidable market distortions.

References: TÜİK; CBRT; TARIM Dairesi; Rekabet Kurumu; TURKSTAT Household Survey; TOBB; FAO; İSO; TÜRK-İŞ; Aegean Exporters’ Association; TZOB; Rekabet Kurumu

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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