Trend Analysis of Major Crops in Pakistan: Policy Insight

Agriculture remains the cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing approximately 22.9% to national GDP and employing 37.4% of the labor force (GOP, 2024). Despite the rapid growth of services and industry, agriculture continues to serve as the backbone of rural livelihoods, food security, and export earnings. The sector is dominated by a handful of major crops, i.e. wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton, and maize, which collectively account for more than 75% of the value added in crop production.

Each of these plays a distinctive role within Pakistan’s socio-economic fabric. Wheat, as the principal staple, underpins national food security. Rice, particularly basmati, not only fulfills domestic needs but also generates vital foreign exchange. Sugarcane sustains a large agro-industrial base, linking farmers to sugar mills and associated value chains. Maize has grown in importance as the primary input for the expanding poultry and animal feed industry, while cotton forms the foundation of the textile sector, the largest contributor to Pakistan’s exports.

The period from 2000 to 2024 has been marked by both achievements and vulnerabilities. Agricultural performance has fluctuated under the influence of climate-induced shocks floods, droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall patterns posing severe risks to crop yields. Persistent water scarcity, declining soil fertility, and recurrent pest infestations have further constrained productivity. At the same time, uneven technological adoption, from mechanization to improved seed varieties, has created a gap between progressive and resource-poor farmers. Policy inconsistency, with frequent shifts in input subsidies, support prices, and trade regulations, has compounded uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the present study undertakes a systematic trend analysis of Pakistan’s five key crops from 2000 to 2024. By examining output patterns, constraints, and emerging opportunities, it seeks to generate insights that can guide policymakers in strengthening resilience, enhancing productivity, and ensuring the long-term sustainability of Pakistan’s agriculture.

Major Crops of Pakistan: Trends, Challenges, and Prospects

Wheat production in Pakistan has demonstrated a positive, though complex, growth trajectory over the last two decades. From approximately 21 million tonnes in 2000-01, production has risen to a record 32.2 million tonnes in 2023–24 (GOP, 2024). This steady increase reflects a combination of policy support and technological adoption. Minimum Support Prices (MSP) and procurement programs have offered farmers a degree of market certainty (Abbas et al., 2023), while the introduction of high-yielding varieties (HYVs), mechanization, and fertilizer use have contributed to productivity gains. Yet, this progress has not come without challenges. Heat stress during critical growth stages, erratic rainfall, water scarcity, and rising input costs increasingly threaten wheat’s role as Pakistan’s staple crop. Moving forward, the breeding and dissemination of heat- and drought-tolerant varieties, coupled with efficient irrigation techniques such as laser land leveling and drip systems, will be essential to safeguard future yields.

Rice, the second pillar of Pakistan’s crop economy, has witnessed remarkable growth, rising from 3.8 million tonnes in 2000–01 to 9.9 million tonnes in 2023–24 (GOP, 2024). Basmati rice, renowned globally for its aroma and grain quality, remains a key export earner. The adoption of hybrid rice varieties and improved management practices has expanded production and export potential. However, the crop’s high-water demand makes it increasingly unsustainable. Irrigated rice consumes a disproportionate share of Indus Basin water resources (Qureshi, 2020), placing immense pressure on national water security. Moreover, the crop is highly vulnerable to monsoon irregularities and catastrophic flooding, as seen in 2022. For sustainability, Pakistan must adopt water-saving practices such as alternate wetting and drying (AWD), diversify into high-value aromatic rice, and incentivize farmers to balance profitability with conservation.

Sugarcane has long been a cornerstone cash crop, producing 81 million tonnes in 2023–24 (GOP, 2024). Its guaranteed demand from sugar mills provides income stability and sustains rural employment. However, sugarcane’s water intensity and entrenched governance problems are a source of growing concern. Cultivation in Punjab and Sindh consumes significant groundwater resources, contributing to depletion (Dawn, 2023). Chronic payment delays by mills, political interference, and volatile pricing systems undermine farmer confidence. In the long run, sugarcane’s sustainability will depend on restructuring the industry to ensure timely farmer payments, reducing the area under cane in water-stressed regions, and promoting alternative crops such as oilseeds and pulses to diversify farm incomes and reduce resource pressure.

Maize represents perhaps the most dynamic success story in Pakistan’s agricultural landscape. Production has surged from 1.7 million tonnes in 2000–01 to 10.2 million tonnes in 2023–24, more than doubling since 2008 (GOP, 2024). The rapid expansion has been fueled by rising demand from the poultry and livestock feed sectors and by the widespread adoption of hybrid maize seeds offering substantially higher yields (Ali et al., 2023). Farmers have increasingly shifted from traditional crops to maize due to their profitability and quick returns. Yet, challenges loom. Climatic fluctuations, particularly unseasonal rain during harvest, alongside pest and disease outbreaks, risk undermining these gains. To ensure resilience, investments in climate-smart hybrids, integrated pest management (IPM), and soil fertility management are urgently required. With the right support, maize could continue to serve as a growth engine, not only for farmers but also for Pakistan’s rapidly expanding feed industry.

Cotton, once the backbone of Pakistan’s agricultural economy, presents a far more troubling story. Production peaked at 14.3 million bales in 2004–05, but has since collapsed, plunging to a historic low of 4.91 million bales in 2022–23, with a modest recovery to 8.22 million bales in 2023–24 (GOP, 2024). This decline has jeopardized the textile industry, forcing heavy reliance on imports and undermining the competitiveness of Pakistan’s largest export sector. The causes of this collapse are multifaceted. Repeated pink bollworm infestations, the emergence of resistance to Bt cotton, and the devastating Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV) have eroded yields (Nazli et al., 2022). Climate change has further compounded the crisis, with rising temperatures and erratic rains damaging both crop quality and quantity. Frustrated by low returns and high risks, many farmers have abandoned cotton in favor of maize and sugarcane. Revitalizing the sector requires urgent interventions: the development and adoption of pest-resistant genetic varieties, strengthened extension services to manage outbreaks, and attractive pricing policies to make cotton competitive again. Without these steps, Pakistan risks losing its strategic advantage in textiles, a sector that employs millions and earns the bulk of foreign exchange.

Taken together, Pakistan’s major crops present a picture of resilience under strain. Wheat remains central to food security but is vulnerable to climate and input pressures. Rice brings foreign exchange but at an unsustainable cost to water resources. Sugarcane sustains incomes yet depletes groundwater and suffers from governance failures. Maize thrives as a success story, though climate and pest challenges remain. Cotton, once the pride of the sector, is in crisis and requires urgent revival. The trajectory of these crops underscores the need for a dual approach: technological innovation to enhance resilience, and policy reforms to align incentives with long-term sustainability. By addressing these issues strategically, Pakistan can protect farmer livelihoods, strengthen food security, and preserve its agricultural competitiveness in an era of mounting climate and market uncertainties.

Policy Pathways for Revitalizing Pakistan’s Crop Sector

The analysis of major crop trends from 2000 to 2024 highlights both achievements and vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Wheat, rice, sugarcane, and maize have demonstrated resilience and growth, underpinning food security, exports, and rural livelihoods. Yet, the catastrophic decline of cotton reveals the fragility of the system when confronted with climate variability, pest outbreaks, and structural inefficiencies. Without decisive policy action, these risks could jeopardize the long-term sustainability of Pakistan’s agriculture and compromise national economic stability.

Water security emerges as the foremost priority. With agriculture consuming over 90% of freshwater resources, promoting and subsidizing high-efficiency irrigation systems (HEIS), including drip and sprinkler technologies, is essential to sustain rice and sugarcane cultivation while mitigating groundwater depletion. Equally urgent is the need for climate-resilient agriculture. Investment in breeding heat-tolerant, drought-resistant, and pest-resistant varieties can help safeguard yields against intensifying climate stresses.

Cotton requires special attention through a national-level revival program. This should combine biotechnological innovation to combat pink bollworm and Cotton Leaf Curl Virus, alongside assured procurement and financial incentives to restore farmer confidence. Strengthening agricultural research and extension services is another critical step. By closing the gap between research institutions and farmers, Pakistan can accelerate the adoption of improved seeds, water-saving practices, and integrated pest management.

Finally, market reforms must address inefficiencies that distort farmer incentives. Transparent pricing mechanisms guarantee timely payments particularly in the sugar sector and stronger farmer cooperatives would ensure fairer returns and more resilient rural incomes.

Conclusion

The trajectory of Pakistan’s major crops from 2000 to 2024 reflects both resilience and vulnerability, underscoring the sector’s critical importance to food security, livelihoods, and exports. Wheat and rice remain pillars of the agricultural economy, yet both face mounting challenges from climate variability and resource constraints. Sugarcane continues to sustain rural incomes but at an unsustainable cost to groundwater resources and institutional stability. Maize has emerged as a dynamic success story, driven by hybrid adoption and expanding demand, though its future hinges on resilience against climatic and biological stresses. Cotton, once the pride of Pakistan’s agricultural and industrial base, now stands in crisis, threatening the country’s textile competitiveness and rural employment.

These contrasting trends emphasize that Pakistan’s agricultural future cannot rely solely on increasing production. Instead, it demands a strategic reorientation toward resilience, sustainability, and equity. Water-efficient technologies, climate-resilient crop varieties, and strong research–extension linkages must form the foundation of this transformation. Equally vital are institutional reforms that ensure transparent pricing, timely farmer payments, and the revival of cotton through biotechnology and assured incentives. By pursuing these integrated strategies, Pakistan can not only stabilize crop production but also secure the dignity and prosperity of its farming communities in an era of intensifying uncertainty.

References: Abbas, et al; Ali et al; Dawn; GOP; Nazli et al; Qureshi, Ullah et al; World Bank

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Agricultural Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Pakistan and can be reached at bagounar@gmail.com

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