Turkey's Food Resilience Post Russia Ukraine War

Thomas Robert Malthus, the 18th-century English economist, famously posited that unchecked population growth would surpass food production, triggering famine and societal collapse. While his dire predictions were tempered by technological advances and global trade, modern crises are reviving his thesis in new contexts. The Russia-Ukraine war has exposed vulnerabilities in global food systems, especially for import-dependent nations. Türkiye, despite being among the world's top ten agricultural producers, has faced unique challenges and opportunities in navigating this turbulent landscape.

As of 2024, Türkiye remains highly reliant on imports for key staples such as wheat and sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine supplying over 70% of its wheat imports and nearly 80% of sunflower oil (FAO, 2023). The war severely disrupted these supply lines, triggering short-term price hikes and public anxiety. However, Türkiye's response highlights the importance of proactive policy and strategic diversification. The government expanded procurement from alternative markets like Kazakhstan and Romania, while accelerating domestic production incentives under its “Agricultural Mobilization Plan.”

In parallel, Türkiye has invested heavily in grain storage infrastructure, smart irrigation systems, and farmer subsidies to reduce dependency on volatile import markets. Urban agriculture initiatives in Istanbul and İzmir, along with renewed focus on agroecology, signal a shift toward long-term food sovereignty. Moreover, Türkiye leveraged regional diplomacy to secure food corridors through the Black Sea, mitigating the worst effects of the crisis.

Thus, while the geopolitical crisis echoed Malthusian concerns, Türkiye’s adaptive strategies demonstrate that resilience is not solely about abundance, but about flexibility, innovation, and policy foresight. Rather than validate Malthus, the current moment reaffirms that food security in the 21st century depends on both local capability and global agility.

Türkiye’s Agricultural Adjustments After the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global agricultural trade flows, particularly in oilseeds and grains, triggering serious repercussions for import-reliant countries like Türkiye. However, the post-conflict period has also revealed Türkiye’s capacity to respond strategically to ensure food system resilience and economic stability.

One of the earliest impacts was felt in the oilseed sector, especially sunflower oil, where Russia and Ukraine previously accounted for nearly 80% of global exports (USDA, 2022). In 2021, Türkiye sourced over 60% of its sunflower oil imports from these countries (TÜİK, 2022). The war led to immediate price hikes and bottlenecks. However, Türkiye managed to soften the blow through existing domestic production of oilseeds like olives and soybeans. According to FAO (2023), Türkiye’s vegetable oil sufficiency ratio averaged 108% from 2020 to 2023, supported by increased olive oil production. The implementation of the “National Oilseed Strategy” in 2022 further incentivized local oilseed cultivation, leading to a 22% reduction in sunflower oil imports by 2023 (TÜİK, 2024).

Grain, particularly wheat, presented a more challenging scenario. Despite being among the world’s top wheat producers, Türkiye is also its largest wheat importer, historically depending on Russia and Ukraine for 70% of imports (ITC, 2022). In 2023, domestic wheat production reached 20 million tons, while consumption exceeded 25 million tons (TMO, 2024). Consequently, grain self-sufficiency fell to 92%, down from 96.5% in 2019 (TÜİK, 2024). To address this vulnerability, Türkiye took strategic steps to diversify import sources, bringing in supplies from Kazakhstan and Brazil, and launched expansive irrigation and yield-enhancement projects under the 2023 "Agricultural Mobilization Program." These adaptive shifts underscore Türkiye’s growing emphasis on food sovereignty, strategic resilience, and sustainable agricultural development in a volatile global landscape.

Beyond Malthus: Türkiye’s Food Security in the Age of Global Interdependence

While Thomas Malthus’s 18th-century warnings about population growth outpacing food supply continue to influence discourse, modern data paints a different picture. Today, global agricultural output is more than sufficient to feed the world’s population; the FAO estimates that global food production can nourish over 10 billion people, far more than the current 8 billion (FAO, 2023). For Türkiye, the issue is not absolute food scarcity but rather vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical, structural, and market-related factors.

Türkiye’s food security challenges during and after the Russia-Ukraine war highlight the pitfalls of global dependency. Disruptions to the Black Sea grain corridor, compounded by speculative trading in commodity markets, drove food inflation to a staggering 65% in 2023 (TCMB, 2024). Additionally, domestic inefficiencies such as poor storage infrastructure and post-harvest handling losses, estimated at 15% of total agricultural output (TÜİK, 2023), exacerbated consumer price volatility and supply constraints.

Addressing these challenges requires a strategic pivot. First, Türkiye must accelerate domestic grain production by investing in high-yield, climate-resilient wheat varieties and expanding the use of precision agriculture technologies to boost productivity and efficiency. Second, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) should enhance national food reserves, targeting a buffer stock that covers at least six months of national consumption to cushion future supply shocks. Third, Türkiye should deepen its collaboration within the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), fostering regional trade stability and coordinated food security strategies.

In essence, Türkiye’s food security does not require a retreat into isolation but rather smarter integration, one that builds internal capacity while leveraging regional and global partnerships. This approach not only rebuts Malthusian anxieties but also charts a path for sustainable and resilient food systems in an interconnected world.

Conclusion

The Russia–Ukraine war served as a stark reminder of the fragility of global food systems and the risks inherent in commodity dependency, particularly for countries like Türkiye. While initial disruptions in sunflower oil and wheat imports triggered inflation and market volatility, Türkiye’s adaptive response demonstrated the power of policy foresight and agricultural resilience. Through domestic production incentives, diversification of import sources, investment in irrigation infrastructure, and regional trade diplomacy, Türkiye has taken concrete steps to mitigate external shocks and strengthen its food sovereignty.

Crucially, the crisis did not confirm Malthusian fears of absolute scarcity but highlighted structural inefficiencies, speculative pricing, and logistical disruptions as the real threats to food security. Türkiye’s case illustrates that national food resilience hinges not only on production volumes but also on infrastructure, governance, and global cooperation. With continued investment in precision farming, post-harvest systems, and strategic reserves, Türkiye can transform its agricultural vulnerabilities into long-term strengths.

Rather than retreating from global markets, Türkiye’s path forward lies in building smarter, more diversified interdependencies while bolstering local capacities. In doing so, it can serve as a model for other import-reliant nations navigating a complex, interconnected, and increasingly uncertain agricultural future.

References: FAO; TÜİK; USDA; TCMB; TMO; TCMB

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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