Türkiye Hazelnut Resilience, Prices & Exports

Türkiye’s 2025 hazelnut losses renew lessons from the 2014 frost crisis. Explore how climate adaptation, insurance, market information and innovation can strengthen hazelnut production, support stable hazelnut prices and secure Turkey hazelnut exports.

POLICY BRIEFS

Mithat Direk

11/6/2026

a couple of yellow flowers sitting on top of a grass covered field

The severe frost that struck Türkiye’s Black Sea hazelnut orchards in late March 2014 was more than a temporary agricultural disaster. It became a major lesson in how climate shocks can travel through an entire agricultural value chain, affecting farmers, processors, exporters, international manufacturers and consumers. At the time, the frost damaged flowers and newly developing nuts during a highly vulnerable stage of the production cycle, sharply reducing expected yields. Because Türkiye was, and remains, the world’s dominant hazelnut producer and exporter, the production shock quickly became an international market event.

The 2014 crisis demonstrated the vulnerability created by the combination of climate-sensitive production, geographical concentration and relatively limited short-run supply flexibility. Hazelnut trees cannot suddenly produce more nuts when prices increase. New orchards require years to reach productive maturity, while existing orchards are exposed to weather conditions that farmers cannot control. As a result, a sudden fall in production can generate a disproportionately large increase in prices.

More than a decade later, the basic lesson remains relevant. Türkiye experienced another severe weather shock in 2025, when frost and other adverse conditions caused a substantial decline in hazelnut production. Production fell from around 717,000 tonnes in 2024 to approximately 441,000 tonnes in 2025, according to sector and official estimates reported in 2026. Yet the market response was different from simply repeating the 2014 experience: higher prices helped partially offset the decline in export volume, while government purchasing, market institutions, insurance mechanisms and accumulated stocks provided additional elements of resilience.

What the 2014 Crisis Taught Türkiye

The first major lesson from 2014 was that weather risk is also a market risk. A frost does not end with damage to an orchard. It reduces the quantity of raw material available to processors, increases procurement costs, affects export contracts and can ultimately influence the prices of chocolate, confectionery and other products that depend on hazelnuts.

This is particularly important for Türkiye because of its dominant position in the world market. Türkiye has accounted for roughly 60–70 percent of global hazelnut production and around 70–75 percent of world exports in recent years. This concentration means that a major production shock in Türkiye can have consequences far beyond the Black Sea region.

The 2014 experience also demonstrated the importance of carryover stocks. Agricultural inventories can act as a buffer between production and consumption. When a poor harvest occurs, stocks can temporarily fill part of the supply gap and reduce extreme price volatility. However, stocks cannot completely compensate for a major production failure, particularly when demand from the food-processing industry remains strong.

A second lesson was the unequal distribution of climate risk. Farmers whose orchards escaped severe damage could benefit from higher prices, while those in heavily affected locations suffered both physical crop losses and income losses. This showed that a national average production figure can hide substantial differences among farming communities. Climate resilience therefore cannot be measured only at the national level; it must also be assessed at farm and regional levels.

A third lesson concerned agricultural insurance. The 2014 frost demonstrated that farmers need mechanisms capable of protecting income when production collapses. Türkiye had already developed an important institutional foundation through the Agricultural Insurance Pool, TARSİM, established under the 2005 Agricultural Insurance Act with government support. The development of agricultural insurance has since become an important component of Türkiye’s broader agricultural risk-management system.

The Market Has Changed, but the Fundamental Risk Has Not

The years following 2014 brought changes in production, marketing, technology and international competition. Türkiye has continued to dominate the global hazelnut industry, but it now operates in a market where buyers have greater awareness of climate risk and greater interest in diversifying their sources of supply.

The international market has also become more sophisticated. Large food manufacturers increasingly require reliable quantities, consistent quality, traceability and predictable delivery. For processors and exporters, therefore, competitiveness is no longer determined solely by how much hazelnut Türkiye produces. Reliability of supply has become a strategic economic asset.

The experience of 2014 also reinforced the importance of substitution. Hazelnuts are a distinctive ingredient, but manufacturers can adjust formulations, reduce their use or increase the use of other nuts when prices become exceptionally high. Such changes may be difficult in the short run because product formulations, consumer preferences and supply contracts cannot be changed immediately. Over a longer period, however, sustained high prices can encourage technological and commercial substitution.

This creates an important warning for producers. A weather-induced price increase may improve farm income in the short term, but exceptionally high prices can also encourage international buyers to search for alternative suppliers and encourage manufacturers to reconsider their dependence on a single geographical source.

Türkiye therefore has an interest not simply in maintaining its production volume but in maintaining the competitiveness and reliability of its entire value chain.

2025: The Crisis Came Back in a Different Form

The strongest evidence that the lessons of 2014 remain relevant is the severe weather shock of 2025. Türkiye’s hazelnut sector again experienced major production losses following damaging weather conditions. Production was reported at about 441,000 tonnes in 2025, compared with approximately 717,000 tonnes in 2024. Export volume also declined substantially, but the sharp increase in prices helped cushion the effect on export earnings. Türkiye exported 238,704 tonnes in 2025 and generated about $2.25 billion in hazelnut export revenue, compared with more than 323,000 tonnes and approximately $2.64 billion in 2024.

This episode provides an important comparison with 2014. In both cases, weather damage reduced physical supply and pushed prices upward. However, Türkiye entered the 2025 crisis with a more developed institutional and commercial environment. Government procurement through the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), agricultural insurance, improved market information, greater processing capacity and international market relationships provided additional tools for absorbing the shock. TMO’s purchase prices have increasingly served as an important benchmark in the domestic market and provide growers with a degree of price support.

Nevertheless, the 2025 experience also showed that institutional improvements cannot eliminate climate vulnerability. Severe weather can still reduce production by hundreds of thousands of tonnes within a single season. The lesson is therefore not that Türkiye has solved the problem, but that it has become better equipped to manage some of its consequences.

Where Does Türkiye Stand in 2026?

By 2026, Türkiye remains the world's leading hazelnut producer and exporter, but its position is increasingly shaped by climate volatility. The sector is simultaneously demonstrating resilience and facing new structural risks.

The recovery expected for the 2026 crop illustrates the importance of distinguishing between a temporary production shock and permanent loss of competitiveness. Initial estimates point to a substantial rebound in production as orchards recover from the 2025 damage. Some 2026 estimates place production around 800,000 tonnes, although forecasts differ according to methodology and timing.

Export performance during 2026 also illustrates the changing relationship between quantity and value. During January–September 2026, Türkiye exported 152,543 tonnes of hazelnuts and generated approximately $1.92 billion in revenue. Export volume was lower than during the corresponding period of 2025, yet export earnings were higher. This reflects the powerful effect of higher prices when supply is constrained.

The situation therefore presents a paradox. Türkiye can lose export volume and still generate substantial foreign exchange because higher prices compensate for part of the physical decline. But this should not be interpreted as a sustainable strategy. Export earnings generated by scarcity are different from export earnings generated by productivity, quality and value addition.

A resilient hazelnut sector should ultimately be able to maintain both physical supply and export value even when weather conditions become more difficult.

From Crisis Management to Climate Adaptation

The most important lesson for 2026 is that Türkiye needs to move from responding to individual disasters towards systematic climate adaptation.

Late spring frost remains one of the most important abiotic risks for hazelnuts. Research on the Turkish sector has identified late frost as a major contributor to yield losses, while high temperatures and water stress can also affect production. The sector therefore faces a broader climate challenge than the single frost event that dominated discussion in 2014.

Adaptation should begin at orchard level. Farmers need better access to climate information, early-warning systems, improved orchard management, suitable planting material and technologies that reduce exposure to extreme temperature events. Research and extension services should focus not only on increasing average yields but also on reducing yield variability.

This distinction is important. A farm that produces 1.5 tonnes per hectare in a normal year but loses most of its crop during a severe frost may be less economically resilient than a farm producing slightly less in normal conditions but maintaining a more stable output during adverse years.

Climate resilience should therefore become an explicit productivity objective.

Insurance, Finance and the Protection of Rural Livelihoods

The 2014 crisis also demonstrated that farmers cannot be expected to carry climate risk alone. Agricultural insurance is particularly important for perennial crops because farmers cannot rapidly switch production after a major shock.

Türkiye’s experience with TARSİM provides a foundation on which further improvements can be built. The next stage should focus on expanding effective coverage, improving loss assessment, strengthening climate-risk data and ensuring that insurance products remain affordable for small and medium-sized producers.

Financial institutions can also play a greater role. Credit programmes linked to orchard rehabilitation, climate-resilient technologies, improved planting material and water-management investments could help farmers recover after severe weather events without becoming trapped in cycles of debt.

This is where the experience of 2014 has broader significance for agricultural economies. Disaster management should not end when compensation is paid. Financial policy should help farmers rebuild productive capacity and reduce their vulnerability to the next shock.

Stocks, Processing and Value Addition

Another lesson from 2014 is the importance of managing supply beyond the farm gate. Stocks can moderate short-term shortages, while processing can increase the economic value generated from each unit of production.

Türkiye already possesses a large and sophisticated hazelnut-processing industry, but greater emphasis on value-added products can further reduce dependence on bulk exports. Hazelnut paste, roasted products, confectionery ingredients, spreads, oils and other processed products can generate greater value than exporting raw or minimally processed nuts.

Value addition also creates opportunities for rural employment. Processing facilities located closer to producing regions can create jobs, strengthen local economies and provide farmers with additional marketing channels.

However, stock management must be carefully designed. Excessive accumulation can create financial costs and distort market signals, while inadequate stocks can intensify shortages during poor harvests. The objective should therefore be strategic inventory management based on reliable production forecasts, consumption requirements and export commitments.

Diversification Is Becoming a Strategic Necessity

Türkiye’s dominant market position remains a major strength, but dominance also creates vulnerability. When one country supplies such a large share of the global market, a weather shock in that country becomes an international supply shock.

International buyers have responded by developing greater interest in alternative origins. Italy, the United States, Chile and Azerbaijan are among the important producers contributing to global supply, while other producing regions may gain importance as climate and market conditions change. Türkiye therefore cannot assume that its historical market share will remain unchanged indefinitely.

The appropriate response is not to resist diversification in global production. Instead, Türkiye should compete through productivity, quality, reliability, traceability, food safety, sustainability and value addition.

Its geographical and historical advantages remain considerable, but long-term leadership will depend increasingly on the ability to deliver consistent quality and dependable supply under changing climatic conditions.

What Should Türkiye Do Next?

The experience from 2014 to 2026 suggests several priorities.

First, climate risk should be incorporated directly into hazelnut-sector planning. Production forecasts should integrate weather information, climate models and orchard-level vulnerability assessments.

Second, agricultural insurance should continue moving toward broader and more accessible coverage, particularly for smaller producers. Insurance should be complemented by affordable climate-adaptation finance.

Third, research should prioritize frost-resistant and climate-adapted varieties, improved orchard management, disease and pest management, and technologies that reduce exposure to temperature and moisture stress.

Fourth, Türkiye should strengthen its supply-chain infrastructure. Better storage, processing, grading, traceability and logistics can reduce the economic consequences of production volatility.

Fifth, policymakers should continue improving market transparency. Timely information on production forecasts, stocks, prices, exports and international demand can help farmers and processors make better decisions.

Finally, Türkiye should pursue greater value addition and branding. The long-term objective should not simply be to sell more hazelnuts but to capture a larger share of the value generated by the global hazelnut economy.

From a 2014 Warning to a 2026 Strategy

The 2014 frost crisis was a warning about the vulnerability of Türkiye’s hazelnut economy. The 2025 frost showed that the warning remains relevant. What has changed is the sector’s capacity to respond.

Türkiye has strengthened its agricultural risk-management institutions, developed greater experience with government market intervention, expanded processing and maintained strong international market relationships. Yet climate change is creating a moving target. A risk-management system designed around occasional extreme events may become inadequate if damaging frost, drought, heat and other weather stresses occur more frequently.

The central lesson is therefore straightforward: resilience cannot mean simply recovering after a disaster. It means reducing the probability and magnitude of losses before the disaster occurs.

For Türkiye, protecting its hazelnut leadership will require combining climate-smart orchard management, agricultural insurance, financial support, strategic stocks, research and development, processing, market information and international competitiveness. The country has demonstrated that it can recover from major production shocks. The challenge for the next decade is to ensure that recovery becomes less costly and that climate resilience becomes an integral part of the sector’s long-term business model.

The 2014 crisis should therefore not be remembered only as a year of exceptionally high hazelnut prices. It should be viewed as an early warning that climate risk, market risk and rural livelihood risk are closely connected. In 2026, Türkiye is still the global leader, but maintaining that leadership will depend increasingly on how effectively it converts the lessons of past crises into investment, innovation and adaptation.

Conclusion

The 2014 hazelnut frost crisis demonstrated how quickly a localized climate event can become a national livelihood crisis and an international market shock. More than a decade later, Türkiye remains the world’s leading hazelnut producer and exporter, but the severe production losses experienced again in 2025 show that the underlying climate vulnerability has not disappeared. The major lesson is that resilience requires more than recovering after a poor harvest. Türkiye needs stronger climate adaptation at farm level, accessible agricultural insurance, reliable market information, strategic stock management, efficient processing and greater value addition. The experience of 2025 also shows that higher prices can protect export earnings temporarily, but they cannot substitute for stable production and long-term competitiveness. As Türkiye enters the next decade, its global leadership will depend on its ability to combine productivity with climate resilience, quality, traceability and innovation. The lesson from 2014 is therefore clear: preparedness is more valuable than crisis response.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

Türkiye Hazelnut Resilience, Prices & Exports

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