Türkiye's Agro-Ecological Diversity and Challenges

Agriculture represents humanity’s foundational technological and social transformation, the decisive shift from mobile hunter-gatherer bands to sedentary, food-producing societies. Archaeological evidence from the Fertile Crescent dates the domestication of cereals and legumes to approximately 9500–8500 BCE, marking the onset of the Neolithic Revolution (Barker, 2021). This transition, however, was gradual and regionally differentiated rather than abrupt. Independent centers of domestication emerged across the globe, including Mesoamerica, the Yangtze and Yellow River basins of China, the African Sahel, and the New Guinea highlands (Larson et al., 2022). These parallel developments underscore that agriculture was not a singular invention but a convergent adaptive response to climatic stabilization following the Last Glacial Maximum.

Recent archaeogenomic research has substantially refined domestication chronologies. Emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccum) was first cultivated in the Karacadağ mountains of southeastern Türkiye around 8800 BCE, while rice (Oryza sativa) domestication in the Yangtze Valley is now dated to roughly 6000 BCE, earlier than prior archaeological estimates suggested (Allaby et al., 2021; Fuller et al., 2023). Such findings reinforce the centrality of Anatolia as a reservoir of genetic diversity and a diffusion corridor through which farming systems spread into Europe and Central Asia via Neolithic migrations.

The agricultural transition catalyzed demographic expansion by stabilizing food supplies and increasing caloric yields per unit area. Sedentism facilitated architectural innovation, storage technologies, and surplus accumulation, which in turn supported occupational specialization and emergent governance structures. Sites such as Çatalhöyük in present-day Türkiye, inhabited between 7100 and 5900 BCE, demonstrate early forms of dense settlement, ritual architecture, craft production, and long-distance exchange networks (Hodder, 2020). Agriculture thus functioned not merely as an economic adaptation but as the structural precondition for urbanization, social stratification, and the institutional complexity that defines early civilization.

Pre-Industrial Agriculture and the Guano Era

For nearly ten millennia following the Neolithic transition, agriculture remained predominantly organic, labor-intensive, and structurally yield-constrained. Productivity depended on ecological nutrient recycling rather than synthetic inputs. Farmers maintained soil fertility through crop rotations, extended fallow periods, intercropping, livestock integration, and the application of animal manure. In riverine civilizations, such as those nourished by annual flood regimes, nutrient replenishment occurred through alluvial silt deposition (Mazoyer & Roudart, 2019). Despite incremental innovations such as the heavy plough, three-field rotation systems, and selective breeding agricultural output per hectare remained modest. Consequently, global population growth was slow and periodically reversed by famine, epidemic disease, and conflict. By 1800, the world population had reached roughly one billion, constrained by what economic historians describe as the Malthusian ceiling of pre-industrial productivity (Galor, 2022).

The nineteenth century marked the first major disruption to this equilibrium through the globalization of nutrient extraction. Vast seabird guano deposits along the arid coasts of Peru and Chile, accumulated over centuries, were discovered to contain exceptionally high concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, critical macronutrients for crop growth. Between 1840 and 1880, Peru exported approximately 20 million tons of guano to agricultural economies in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, dramatically boosting yields (Cushman, 2021). Yet this trade was environmentally unsustainable and socially exploitative, relying on coercive labor systems akin to debt peonage, while rapidly exhausting finite reserves.

By the late nineteenth century, concern over nitrogen scarcity intensified. In 1898, Sir William Crookes warned that reliance on Chilean sodium nitrate deposits could not indefinitely sustain Europe’s wheat supply (Smil, 2021). This looming nitrogen bottleneck framed food security as a scientific challenge and set the stage for the industrial fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, ushering agriculture into the chemical age.

The Haber–Bosch Revolution and the Transformation of Global Food Production

The decisive turning point in modern agricultural productivity occurred in 1909, when Fritz Haber successfully demonstrated the catalytic synthesis of ammonia (NH₃) from atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen under conditions of high temperature and pressure. Carl Bosch subsequently engineered the process for industrial-scale production in 1913 at BASF’s Oppau facility in Germany, converting a laboratory reaction into a cornerstone of industrial chemistry (Erisman et al., 2022). This innovation effectively severed agriculture’s historic dependence on naturally occurring nitrogen sources.

The Haber–Bosch process reconfigured the global nitrogen cycle. Prior to its development, bioavailable nitrogen originated exclusively from biological fixation or limited mineral deposits such as guano and Chilean nitrates. Today, synthetic ammonia production exceeds 150 million metric tons annually, with roughly 80 percent allocated to fertilizer manufacturing (FAO, 2024). Although energy-intensive, consuming approximately 1–2 percent of global energy supply, the process underpins contemporary food systems. Demographic analyses suggest that without synthetic nitrogen, the planet’s carrying capacity would be limited to roughly half the current global population of 8.1 billion (Smil, 2022).

The productivity response was unprecedented. Global cereal yields rose from historically stagnant levels below 1.2 tonnes per hectare to over 4 tonnes per hectare by 2023. This nitrogen-enabled yield surge provided the agronomic foundation for the Green Revolution and fundamentally reshaped global food security trajectories.

Mechanization, Structural Transformation, and Environmental Repercussions

The postwar period witnessed a dual transformation of agriculture through mechanization and chemical intensification. The global tractor fleet expanded from roughly 5 million units in 1950 to 28 million in 2023, reflecting accelerated capital deepening in farming systems (World Bank, 2024). Adoption was particularly rapid in emerging economies. In Türkiye, tractor numbers increased from just 1,750 in 1948 to approximately 1.4 million in 2023, facilitating mechanized cultivation across 95 percent of arable land (TurkStat, 2024). Mechanization compressed planting and harvesting windows, raised labor productivity, and reduced dependence on animal draft power.

However, rising capital intensity precipitated profound structural change. Agriculture’s share of global employment declined from 44 percent in 1991 to 26 percent in 2023, displacing an estimated 1.2 billion workers into manufacturing and services (ILO, 2024). In Türkiye, agricultural employment fell from 41.7 percent of the workforce in 1990 to 15.8 percent in 2023. This labor reallocation fueled rapid urbanization; Türkiye’s urban population increased from 25 percent in 1950 to 77.5 percent in 2023 (World Bank, 2024). Yet urban infrastructure and housing supply lagged demographic influxes, generating large informal settlements around major metropolitan centers. These compressed transitions mirrored earlier industrialization experiences in Europe and North America but unfolded under weaker welfare protections and planning capacity.

Simultaneously, chemical intensification generated mounting environmental externalities. Global nitrogen fertilizer applications rose from 11 million tonnes in 1961 to 118 million tonnes in 2023 (FAO, 2024). Because crops absorb only a fraction of applied nitrogen, substantial losses occur through volatilization, leaching, and nitrous oxide emissions, contributing to groundwater contamination, eutrophication, and climate forcing (IPCC, 2023). Organic agriculture emerged as a corrective framework, institutionalized through IFOAM and policy support mechanisms such as the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. Although organic acreage has expanded globally, price premiums and yield differentials continue to limit widespread substitution, underscoring the enduring trade-off between productivity and environmental sustainability.

Global Crop Concentration, Investment Trends, and the Paradox of Food Insecurity

Contemporary agricultural production is highly concentrated in a narrow set of staple commodities. In 2023, global cereal output reached approximately 2.8 billion tonnes, with maize leading at 1.21 billion tonnes, followed by wheat (789 million tonnes), rice (788 million tonnes), and soybean (405 million tonnes) (FAO, 2024). Together, these four crops occupy nearly half of global cropland and underpin both direct human consumption and industrial livestock feed systems. Their dominance is reinforced by research and capital allocation patterns.

Global agricultural research and development expenditure reached $35.2 billion in 2022, of which 62 percent originated from private firms concentrating on maize, soybean, and wheat genetics (Pardey et al., 2023). Since their commercialization in 1996, genetically modified crops have expanded to 190 million hectares worldwide. Adoption rates are especially high for soybean, maize, and cotton, primarily featuring herbicide-tolerant and insect-resistant (Bt) traits (ISAAA, 2024). Regulatory divergence persists, however. Türkiye, under Biosafety Law No. 5977, permits GM imports for feed but prohibits domestic cultivation, reflecting precautionary alignment with European Union standards while increasing feed import dependency (Gul & Cengiz, 2023).

Despite aggregate abundance, food insecurity remains pervasive. In 2023, global food availability averaged 2,950 kilocalories per capita per day, adequate at the aggregate level, yet 735 million people experienced chronic hunger (FAO et al., 2024). This coexistence of surplus and deprivation reflects income inequality, conflict, and price volatility rather than absolute scarcity. Recent spikes in global food prices, compounded by energy costs and geopolitical disruptions, have intensified access constraints, particularly for low-income households in import-dependent economies.

Geopolitical Shocks, Climate Stress, and Strategic Imperatives for Türkiye

The war between Russia and Ukraine exposed the structural fragility of globally integrated food supply chains. Prior to 2022, the two countries jointly supplied roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports, 20 percent of maize exports, and 80 percent of sunflower oil exports (FAO, 2023). Conflict-related disruptions triggered a 46 percent surge in global wheat prices in March 2022, destabilizing import-dependent economies across North Africa and the Middle East (Glauber & Laborde, 2023). The episode demonstrated how geographic concentration of export capacity magnifies systemic risk in staple markets.

Climate change compounds these geopolitical vulnerabilities. Global temperatures have risen approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with measurable impacts on crop productivity and water availability (WMO, 2024). Empirical projections indicate yield declines of 6–10 percent per 1°C warming for major cereals, alongside significant contractions in climate suitability for perennial crops (Jägermeyr et al., 2023). Türkiye is particularly exposed. The 2021 Marmara drought reduced national wheat output substantially, while the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes disrupted irrigation and storage infrastructure across multiple provinces (MoAF, 2024). Long-term projections suggest declining surface water availability in key irrigated plains, threatening production stability.

Simultaneously, land degradation and urban encroachment continue to erode agricultural capacity. Türkiye’s rich biodiversity, positioned at the intersection of Euro-Siberian, Mediterranean, and Irano-Turanian zones, offers strategic genetic advantages for adaptation. Yet conservation gaps, insufficient R&D investment, fragmented landholdings, and low irrigation efficiency constrain resilience. Integrated policy responses, linking research funding, water management reform, land consolidation, strategic reserves, and targeted social protection, are essential to safeguard national food security under accelerating climatic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Conclusion

The historical trajectory of agriculture demonstrates an extraordinary continuum of human innovation, adaptation, and societal transformation. From the Neolithic domestication of cereals and legumes in the Fertile Crescent and Anatolia to parallel developments across Mesoamerica, China, Africa, and New Guinea, agriculture fundamentally reshaped human settlements, social organization, and demographic capacity. Pre-industrial farming, while labor-intensive and ecologically constrained, established the foundation for sustenance and incremental technological improvements over millennia. The nineteenth-century guano trade highlighted early interventions in nutrient management but exposed environmental and social vulnerabilities, signaling the need for more sustainable, scalable solutions.

The twentieth century ushered in the Haber–Bosch revolution, mechanization, and chemical intensification, dramatically expanding global food production and enabling the Green Revolution. These advances supported population growth, urbanization, and structural economic transformation but also generated profound social dislocation and environmental externalities, including nitrogen pollution, groundwater contamination, and biodiversity loss. Contemporary agriculture remains highly concentrated in a narrow set of staple commodities, with significant investment focused on maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Despite abundant global production, food insecurity persists due to income inequality, price volatility, and geopolitical shocks, exemplified by the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Türkiye exemplifies the intersection of these historical, technological, and ecological dynamics. Its agro-ecological diversity, combined with exposure to climate stress, water scarcity, and land degradation, underscores the urgency for integrated policy strategies that prioritize research, irrigation efficiency, land consolidation, conservation, and social protection. Overall, the evolution of agriculture illustrates a persistent tension between productivity, sustainability, and equity, an imperative for future policy and innovation.

References: Allaby et al; Barker; Bayram & Önsoy; Bunn et al; Cengiz; Cushman; Defra; DSİ; Erisman et al; Eurostat; Evenson & Gollin; FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO; Fuller et al; Galor; Glauber & Laborde; Gul & Cengiz; Hodder; ILO; IPCC; ISAAA; Jägermeyr et al; Karpat; Kurnaz; Larson et al; Lockeretz.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

Related Stories